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President Joe Biden looks to impose a higher tax rate on the…

President Joe Biden looks to impose a higher tax rate on the corporation and wealthy Americans, with relief eyed for middle-class households

20210317
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Market Focus

US stocks market was mixed on Tuesday while the 10-year yield edged slightly higher. Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. lifted the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index closed marginally lower, with energy and industrials stocks leading the decline.

President Joe Biden looks to impose a higher tax rate on the corporation and wealthy Americans, with relief eyed for middle-class households. Biden’s proposal will mostly affect families earning more than $400,000 a year and could lay out a path for his long-standing economic and infrastructure plans. However, the road to higher taxation will be bumpy since any tax changes will have to move through Congress, and Biden has almost no power to push through his plan via executive order.

European Union looks to resume vaccination campaign as the block’s drug regulator signaled AstraZeneca’s Covid shot was safe. Shortly after, Italy and France hinted that they would resume using the AstraZeneca vaccine. Despite the setbacks, European Commission will unveil its strategy to gradually lift coronavirus lockdowns on Wednesday.

Bloomberg’s key takeaways from China’s economic data releases:

  • The official figure showed growth rates of more than 30% for industrial production, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment.
  • Economists warned that recovery remains imbalanced, and the foundation for economic recovery is not yet solid.
  • The jobless rate was 5.5% at the end of February, up from 5.2% in December.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

Eurodollar dipped 0.17% albeit upbeat investor’s confidence data. Germany published the ZEW Economic Sentiment for March on Tuesday, the figure came on top of the forecast of 74, printed 76.6. Speculators now await the Fed announcement to look for a clue on how the central bank will deal with its current account deficit and whether they will push agenda to hike interest rates.

Aussie, Kiwi, and Cable plunged before the EU session but pared most of their loss later in the day. Safe-haven pairs such as USDJPY and USDCHF dropped 0.14% and 0.42% respectively. However, low-yielding currencies should remain subdued given the global rise in yields triggered by the US-led reflation trade.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold is gradually losing its bouncing strengths as $1740 kept a solid lid on any upward moves. Price is close to kissing its descending trendline that started in January, but the price has been rejected by a $1740 hurdle three times. This in turn diminishes the likelihood of price touches the dynamic resistance line. Sellers are patiently waiting for bond yields to edger higher to kick off another round of bearish run, and the price would breach below the support band of $1691 and $1673 this time. Further on the south, bears ultimately eyes for $1600 handle. MACD on the daily chart is printing a bullish picture.

Resistance: 1765, 1839

Support: 1691, 1673, 1600

GBPJPY (Weekly Chart)

GBPJPY is extending its gains to the tenth consecutive week, approaching the highest price of 152.83 since April 2018. Strong fundamentals for the Sterling combined with receding demand for safe-haven currency have helped this pair to forge such an incredible surge. Meanwhile, the continuous appreciation has driven RSI deeply into the overbought zone, currently printing 77. We expect the price to contest a 152.83 resistance level before profit takings, which would prompt a correction toward the purple trendline. However, the prospect of this pair remains to be bullish within a risk-on environment in 2021.

Resistance: 152.83

Support: 149.43, 145.9, 141.17

EURUSD (Daily & Monthly Chart)

Euro is under pressure amid recovering US dollar and is on a third losing streak. Despite price managed to overcome horizontal resistance of 1.1954, but it failed to reclaim the key 1.2 psychological level. The false breakout marked a retracement of the current bearish trend, which looks to resume toward 1.1778.

On the monthly chart, the euro-dollar is correcting toward a 23.6% Fibonacci level of 1.167, which is in confluence with the daily picture. However, we expect a robust rebound at this stern support line. In the longer term, the bulls look to challenge the previous high of 1.25.

Resistance: 1.1954, 1.2215

Support: 1.1778, 1.163

20210317
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With a strengthened US dollar index and the news of the possibility…

With a strengthened US dollar index and the news of the possibility of Iranian oil coming back onto the market, oil prices are weak today

20210316
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Market Focus

US equity markets turn positive with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq are trading in the positive territories. Technology shares led US stocks higher as investors weighed the economic recovery and progress on vaccines against the risk of inflation. Both S&P 500 and the Dow Jones hit fresh records as investors continued keeping their eyes on the bond yield, which remains the primary risk facing the stock markets. In the next upcoming days, the market will have to continually grapple with the anxiety about economic overheating and the upcoming FOCM event.

The US might face the first major tax hike since 1993 in the next economic plan as President Joe Biden is planning to announce to help pay for the long-term US recovery program. For Biden’s administration, the upcoming changes are an opportunity not just to fund key initiatives, but also to address the inequities of Trump’s tax system. Thus, the next economic plan might act as a major turnover of the US tax system.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

DXY opens the week on a positive footing, remaining higher against most G-10 currencies peers. The dollar is expected to stay bid into this week’s Federal Reserve policy decision, which will refrain from any explicit action to rein in yields.

The precious metal, gold heads for a second straight days gain on bets that the Fed will decide to keep rates unchanged this week during the meeting. The Fed meeting will be a major driver for the gold’s movement as if rates remain low, potentially lifting the inflation rate, then it will drive the gold market upward.

After last week’s fluctuation, crude oil prices consolidate around $65 in a narrow band on Monday amid a lack of significant fundamental drivers. With a strengthened US dollar index and the news of the possibility of Iranian oil coming back onto the market, oil prices are weak today.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold extends its positive trend on Monday, currently trading around 1730 area. On the daily chart, the technical outlook seems to suggest that Gold might extend its recovery toward its resistance level at 1746.91 in the near- term. The RSI indicator continues to stay below overbought, implying that there is still more room for the pair on the upside before it confronts a bearish pressure. In the meanwhile, the MACD indicator just turns to a bullish mode, suggesting that the pair has the potential to grow upward. However, in the bigger picture, gold remains bearish as it continues to fall within the descending channel whilst trading below the 50 Simple Moving Average and the midline of Bollinger Band.

Resistance: 1746.91, 1790.23, 1825.24

Support: 1676.89

GBPUSD (Four- Hour Chart)

From a technical aspect, repeated failure to break the resistance at 1.3954 marks the formation of a bearish double-top pattern in the near- term. The double top formation may bring the pair down to the next support level at 1.3779, and then pullback; thus, any decline is likely to find a place near the support confluence region. The MACD indicator also suggests that the bearish momentum is likely to continue. However, in the bigger picture, GBPUSD remains bullish as it continues to stay in the ascending channel.

Resistance: 1.3954, 1.4008, 1.4062

Support: 1.3779

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

EURUSD retreats as the US dollar index recovers its poise, currently trading around 1.1930. On the daily chart, EURUSD continues to trade within the descending channel; at the same time, it is located below the 50- and 100-SMA, indicating a bearish mode. However, the RSI indicator stays in a neutral situation, suggesting that there is room for the pair to climb or drop. That being said, the pair might be in a consolidated mode as of now. If the pair can successfully climb above the resistance at 1.1945, then it will open a chance to contest the next resistance at 1.2349, where turns the pair from bearish to bullish in the near-term and long-term. To the downside, if the pair fails to test 1.1945, then it will potentially head toward 1.1695, which confirms a bearish trend.

Resistance: 1.1945, 1.2349

Support: 1.1695, 1.1492, 1.1290

20210316
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Italy Prime Minister Mario Draghi announced most parts of Italy will return…

Italy Prime Minister Mario Draghi announced most parts of Italy will return to lockdown on Monday amid hiking infections

20210315
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Market Focus

US stocks market was mixed amid spiking treasury yields. Higher yield seemed to be weighing down on Tech shares, with the Nasdaq 100 index dropped 0.9% on Friday. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Index advanced higher towards 32,700 and the S&P 500 climbed 0.1%. Financials and industrials stocks edged higher as investors are shifting demand into value shares.

Italy Prime Minister Mario Draghi announced most parts of Italy will return to lockdown on Monday amid hiking infections. The government has blamed more-contagious virus strains from the UK and Brazil and pledges to triple vaccinations to more than half a million a day.

BoJ is considering releasing an analysis of the potential impact of lowering its negative interest rate to show its determination to use this option if needed. Details will be released on March 19 and are widely expected to tweak its stimulus framework while stopping short of a major overhaul.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs Movement

The US greenback stopped its losing streak amid a rising yield backdrop, rallied 0.28% and 5.8% respectively. The 10-year treasury yield refreshed high of 1.632% on the last trading day. Investors are confident in the economical upside of Biden’s generous $1.9 trillion stimulus package, not to mention Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s support in rising yield. That being said, bond prices will continue to suffer amid higher expectations of inflation in 2021.

Euro was on the defensive against the dollar, slipped 0.28% on Friday. Vaccine rollouts in the Euro Zone are still sluggish albeit with regulators’ approval on Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot vaccine. The vaccination campaign has been halted in some European countries due to concerns that doses supplied by AstraZeneca resulted in blood clots.

Cable picked up some volatility as the economic docket failed to impress speculators, dipped 0.45%. UK’s Manufacturing Production for January decreased by 2.3%, whereas economists expected the figure to be around -0.8%, and marked the first decline in eight-month.

Fire sales in safe-haven currencies resume, the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc lost 0.5% and 0.58% against the greenback. Investors are allocating money into risky assets, and leaving bonds behind as they grew optimistic about the outlook in 2021 and 2022. Gold resembled a similar trend recently but somehow managed to stand up against the dollar on Friday, closed up 0.06%.

The Canadian dollar was the only one swimming against the current, USDCAD plunged 0.52%. Optimism has been circulating in the oil market due to OPEC+’s effort to keep supply-constrained, thus boosting the crude price and lending support to the oil-linked currency.

Technical Analysis

EURGBP (Daily Chart)

EURGBP struggles to find a direction as price clings to 76.4% Fibonacci around 0.8565. Price has been trapped inside a descending wedge for the last four months, and will soon run into a dead end. If it is not able to pull off a strong rebound in the near term, then this pair will likely resume its selling bias. However, since RSI is hovering over the edge of an oversold zone, we expect easing downward momentum. The bears will meet their first support around 1.845 followed by a robust defense line of 0.828, last seen last February.

Resistance: 0.874, 0.8887

Support: 0.8565, 0.845, 0.828

USDCAD (Daily Chart)

USDCAD is extending its decline on the fourth consecutive day, currently hovering above the 1.246 support line. This support level was previously contested, followed by a strong bounce. But the bulls look to give up their defensive line as Loonie was only currency trading firmly against the US dollar on Friday thanks to the upbeat Canadian unemployment rate and stabilized oil price. Further, on the south, the price will meet the support of 1.2268 dated back in February 2018. MACD on the daily chart continues to eke out the current bearish trend.

Resistance: 1.275, 1.296

Support: 1.25, 1.227, 1.21

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold pared all of its loss on Friday and is extending its recovery toward 50% Fibonacci resistance. On the upside, a red descending trendline will put a lid on any attempts for a breakthrough. Price is approaching a corner where the red downward trendline, the purple long-term support trendline, and the horizontal support band intersect with each other. It would be interesting to see how the price could maneuver inside this highlighted zone. If bidders are to give up the downside support zone between $1673 and $1690, then it would open doors to $1600 level and essentially mark the death of Gold. MACD on the daily chart seems to be in the transition towards a bullish trend, but investors should be prudent to wait for a clear signal.

Resistance: 1765, 1839

Support: 1690, 1673, 1600

20210315
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