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As investors weigh whether the Fed will continue its dovish stance, the…

As investors weigh whether the Fed will continue its dovish stance, the dollar remains weak, after consumer sentiment plummeted on Friday

20210816
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Market Focus

U.S. stocks eked out another all-time high and Treasury yields declined after a report showed consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level in nearly a decade. The dollar weakened and crude oil slumped. The S&P 500 closed at a record for a fourth consecutive session while trading within a 0.2% range Friday. The consumer staples and real estate sectors led gains, while energy and financial shares declined. The benchmark index has almost doubled since the pandemic lows reached in March 2020, with the energy sector the biggest gainer during that period. Walt Disney rose after its streaming subscriptions beat estimates. European stocks posted the longest winning streak since 1999.

The U.S. equity rally slowed Friday after data showed the University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment index fell by 11 points to 70.2, the lowest since December 2011. The slump in confidence risks a more pronounced slowing in economic growth in the coming months should consumers rein in spending. The recent deterioration in sentiment highlights how rising prices and concerns about the delta variant’s potential impact on the economy are weighing on Americans.

The easing in the energy sector rally has also raised concern. On Tuesday, the energy sector capped a 19-day streak in which no member of the index traded above its 50-day moving average, the second-longest span since the late-1950s, data compiled by Sentiment Trader show. That’s something that hasn’t happened since the summer of 2001 when Enron and its ensuing bankruptcy was pressuring the energy complex.

Main Pairs Movement

Crude oil futures eased in New York. The latest Covid-19 wave is leading to tighter curbs on movement across the globe, though there are mixed assessments on its impact. The International Energy Agency reduced its demand forecasts for the rest of the year, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts only a transient hit to consumption.

A gauge of the dollar retreated most in a month while haven currencies held on to broad gains as investors grew more concerned about economic prospects after a report showed U.S. consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level in nearly a decade.

The dollar remained weak as investors weighed whether the Federal Reserve may continue with its dovish stance following a plunge in consumer sentiment Friday and a drop in inflation earlier this week Fed officials including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans had earlier said conditions for tapering may soon be achieved. A measure of currency-market volatility declined to a two-month low on Friday.

The Norwegian krone outperformed most peers as next week’s Norges Bank meeting comes into focus.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4- Hour Chart)

The euro dollar rose forward and printed a weekly high at 1.1800 after yesterday’s miserable performance, as of writing, EUR/USD under 1.18 threshold at 1.1795 around with 0.56% gains in the day market. The pair is propping up as the U.S. dollar remains under pressure across the board. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report is kicking off to accelerate to the downside. The index tumbles unexpectedly to 70.2, the lowest level since 2011.

From the technical perspective, the RSI indicator has reached 66 figures, suggesting bullish momentum ahead. For moving average side, 15 long SMA indicator has changed it way to upside and 60 long SMA indicator remaining negative way.

For the market movement, the eurodollar finally breakthrough the upside resistance at 1.1755 level in the daily market which we expect a critical barricade. Moreover, the short-term SMA indicator supports short-term upside traction momentum for the pair. All in all, we expect the market will continue bullish expectation and movement at least for the short term. On the upside, 1.18 level will be the psychological resistance for the pair and 1.1848 followings. On sideway, 1.1755 remains a critical price area for euro fiber. If the price reverse to the bottom side below 1.1755, the next critical support level will be 1.17.

Resistance: 1.18, 1.185

Support: 1.1755, 1.17

XAUUSD (4- Hour Chart)

Gold price edged up by more than 1.4% on Friday, boosted by lower U.S. yields and weaker greenback. Gold trading at $1776.6 after resisted by 1780 threshold, the highest level in a week. U.S. yields tumble after the latest economic numbers. The 10-year dropped under 1.3% at 1.293 with 5% losses. In the late of the week, gold has erased weekly losses and is in positive territory after a reversal of $100 from the Monday flash plummet low.

For the technical side, the RSI indicator record 69 figures as of writing, suggesting bullish momentum at the current stage. For moving average perspective, 15 long SMA indicator toward it slope to upward movement and 60 long SMA indicator retaining south way movement.

For the current stage, the RSI indicator is showing close to over-bought territory that will restrict the upside traction. Therefore, we expect the 1792 level is a pivotal resistance for the sell-side position. For the downside, we think the short-term support level will be 1761 and 1730 following behind.

Resistance: 1792, 1830.5

Support: 1761, 1730,1700

20210816
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Micron Technology led chipmakers to lower amid concern over the market for…

Micron Technology led chipmakers to lower amid concern over the market for memory chips

20210813
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Market Focus

U.S. stocks set another record high even as the S&P 500 Index settles into the narrowest trading range since before the Covid pandemic roiled global financial markets. Health care and technology shares helped push the S&P to a closing high for a third consecutive session and for the 47th time this year. Micron Technology led chipmakers to lower amid concern over the market for memory chips. Amid cautious sentiments, Nasdaq rose 0.35%, and Dow Jones gained just 0.04%.

The head of the Federal Trade Commission said antitrust enforcers should more frequently move to block mergers that threaten competition rather than relying on traditional remedies to fix deals and then approve them, a view that may weigh on a major acquisition by a defense giant Lockheed Martin Corp.

FTC Chair Lina Khan outlined her concerns about common measures used by the Justice Department and the FTC to settle merger investigations in a letter to Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, who had written to the agency about deals in the defense industry.

The comments come as the FTC is investigating Lockheed’s $4.4 billion deal to purchase Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings Inc., a takeover seen as an early litmus test of whether President Joe Biden will keep mergers among defense contractors in check.

Khan said she’s skeptical of the practice of imposing conditions on how companies operate, known as behavioral remedies, but also said asset divestitures, the most common way that companies win approval for mergers, can be problematic.

Main Pairs Movement

The dollar advanced against most of its mayor rivals as the market’s mood soured. Higher than expected US PPI revived concerns about heating inflation and a possible Federal Reserve’s response. Still, the greenback gains were tepid and uneven.

The euro pair and USDJPY lingering around the familiar levels, while cable bounced off 1.3800 and settle slightly above that level as of writing. Commodity-linked currencies lost ground against their American peer, as Loonie extended north, and both antipodean pairs edged lower. Overall, currencies followed the lead of Wall Street, which seesawed between gains and losses to end the day mostly in the red.

Gold is unchanged on a daily basis, trading around $1,750 a troy ounce heading into the Friday opening. Crude oil prices slightly dropped, with WTI failing to breach $70.00 resistance and closing the day at $68.90, and Brent at $71.15. US bond yields closed mixed. The 10-year US Treasury note settled at 1.36%.

Technical Analysis

USDCHF (4-hour Chart)

The USD/CHF extend the upside traction above 0.92 and ahead of the month-long peak as investors ignore Producer Price Index(PPI) rose to 7.8% in July from 7.3% in June in came in higher than estimated, pair printed 0.9235 with 0.16% gains as of writing. In the meantime, the benchmark 10 years U.S. Treasury bond yields are up more than 2% hover on Thursday, additional propel the pair stay afloat in the positive territory. For market data, Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index for August will be featured in the U.S. economic docket.

For the technical aspect, the RSI indicator drags down from an over-bought area to 69 as of writing, suggesting torrid bullish sentiment ahead. For the moving average side, 15 and 60 long SMAs indicators are both toward to north way.

In light of the aforementioned, we expect the market is facing a powerful resistance of 0.925 which base on price action. On the other hand, the RSI indicator also shows a nearly over-bought sentiment if the market successive rally up then holds momentum back. Therefore, we foresee the market will be choppy in a range between 0.9208 and 0.925 if the price could continue to hold above the first support level. In contrast, it is really hard to find a price cluster for downside support. Since, if price failed to defend first short term support, then the price will forward to lower stage.

Resistance: 0.925, 0.927

Support: 0.9208, 0.9197, 0.915

EURUSD (4- Hour Chart)

EUR/USD pair shows bottomed at 1.721 then bounced to the upside trimming losses. It rose back above 1.173 on a quiet session. It remains in negative territory but off lows dollar’s momentum evaporates. The DXY index is still up for the day, but it printed slow movement at 93 thresholds as greenback peaked after the release of U.S. initial jobless claims dropped as expected to 375K while fell under 3 million for the first time since the pandemic.

From the technical perspective, the RSI indicator recovered from over sought territory and printed 39 figures, suggesting s bearish momentum ahead. For the moving average side, 15 and 60 long SMA indicators are both heading to the negative side.

As mention previously, we expected if the price drop below 1.1755, market momentum would drag it to lower lows that eyes on 1.17. In the day market, we see euro fiber was blocked by critical upper resistance at 1.1755 then turn its head back down slightly. All in all, we expect 1.17 will be the final support level forbid buyers. If breakthrough the 1.17 level, then price will ahead to lower stage.

Resistance: 1.1755, 1.18, 1.185

Support: 1.17

USDCAD (4- Hour Chart)

The USD/CAD pair edged higher during the U.S. trading session and was last seen rising 0.22% on the day at 1.2526 level as of writing. Despite the recovery witnessed following a two-day decline, pairs movement was restricted by a lack of high-tier macroeconomic data release. On the other hand, crude oil price trading to the negative side under $69 per barrel and fail to provide a directional clue to the commodities-linked loonie.

For the technical side, the RSI indicator record 49 figures as of writing, suggesting slightly bearish movement but lack of direction. For moving average perspective, 15 long SMA indicator toward it slope to upwind momentum and 60 long SMA indicator shows north way momentum.

All in all, we think the market is stuck in a modest range between 1.2485 and 1.2587. On the upside, we see 1.2587 as critical resistance as the neckline of a slight pattern. On the downside, a weakness and short term is eye on 1.2485, following a pivotal support level on 1.2425.

Resistance: 1.2587, 1.2733, 1.28

Support: 1.2485, 1.2425, 1.23

20210813
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The precious metal, gold, rose the most in three months as the…

The precious metal, gold, rose the most in three months as the dollar declined after the US inflation report

20210812
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Market Focus

US markets were mixed after the inflation report was not as bad as feared. The Dow Jones jumped 220.3 points, a new record high. The S&P 500 edged higher to 444.70 while the Nasdaq 100 closed with 0.1% lower. The consumer prices jumped 5.4% in July; however, the core inflation, which excluded energy and food, rose by 0.3% last month, less than the expectation of 0.4%.

According to Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan, the central band should start tapering its monthly purchases of bonds in October. As the economy and employment become healthier, the fed should be comfortable pulling back on the stimulus.

US President Joe Biden has pledged to wean off the fossil fuels and has called been more urgent. At the same time, Joe Biden’s administration has called Saudi Arabia and its allies to produce and unleash more crude oil onto global markets.

Main Pairs Movement

Crude oil future edged higher on Wednesday after Joe Biden’s administration mentioned that it would not call on US crude oil producers to increase oil output. In the meantime, the administration indicated that the output from OPEC+ is not enough, which might potentially be harming global recovery. As a result, the crude oil price closed at 69.25, up 1.41% on Wednesday.

The Aussie closed higher at 0.73745 amid the concerns of the US inflation report and the resurgence of new variant delta cases. However, the currency pair seems to consolidate in a tight range as the decline of iron- ore prices and the protracted NSW lockdown, according to National Australia Bank.

The precious metal, gold, rose the most in three months as the dollar declined after the US inflation report, easing fears that the Fed might soon pull back stimulus. Gold edged as much as 1.5%, as closed in $1751 on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (4-hour Chart)

Sterling caught some aggressive bids during the early New York session and shot to fresh daily tops, around the 1.3870-75 region in reaction to mixed U.S. inflation data. The headline CPI decelerate to 0.5% gains in July from the 0.9% increase recorded in the previous month. Additionally, core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% MoM against 0.4% expected and June’s 0.9%. This, along with Fed president comments, weighed on the dollar. For the technical aspect, the RSI indicator rebounds to 51 figures, suggesting neutral momentum. For the moving average side, 15 long SMA indicators turn static movement and 60 long SMA seems slightly downward.

In light of the aforementioned, we still expect this pair will continue slightly to move to the sideway. If the price falls ahead, the first immediate support level will eyes on 1.385 level in short term and 1.38 level follow. If the price could go over the last highs spot which is around 1.395, it will be heading to over 1.4 level.

Resistance: 1.3896, 1.395, 1.4

Support: 1.38, 1.3745

EURUSD (4- Hour Chart)

EUR/USD pair recovered from a fresh low at 1.1705, yet the recovery stalled around the 1.175 thresholds, maintaining the tepid tone at 1.17368 as of writing. On Thursday, June industrial production data will be featured in the European economic docket. Later in the day, the weekly initial jobless claims and producer price index data from the U.S. will be looked upon for fresh impetus. From the technical perspective, the RSI indicator recovered from over sought territory and printed 44 figures, suggesting slightly bearish momentum. For the moving average side, 15 and 60 long SMA indicators are both heading to the negative side.

As mention previously, we expected if the price drop below 1.1755, market momentum would drag it to lower lows that eyes on 1.17. In the day market, we see euro fiber was blocked by critical upper resistance at 1.1755 then turn its head back down slightly. All in all, we expect 1.17 will be the final support level forbid buyers. If breakthrough the 1.17 level, then price will ahead to lower stage.

Resistance: 1.1755, 1.18, 1.185

Support: 1.17

XAUUSD (4- Hour Chart)

Gold clings to strong recovery gains on Wednesday as renewed dollar weakness helped it gain traction in the American session, after released CPI data. As of writing, gold was up 1.4% on the day at $1753. The U.S. dollar index is currently down 0.2% daily at 92.88. At the same time, benchmark 10 years U.S. Treasury bond yields are down 2%. For the technical side, the RSI indicator record 48.5 figures as of writing, suggesting slightly bearish movement but lack of direction. For moving average perspective, 15 long SMA indicator toward it slope to upside momentum and 60 long SMA indicator shows south way momentum.

In light of price action, we see the market rebound from rock bottom days ago to the current stage as market revival from overly sell-side sentiment. If momentum continues toward to downside, the first critical will be in 1730. On up way, we expect 1751 will be strong resistance.

Resistance: 1751.5, 1792, 1830

Support: 1730, 1700, 1682

20210812
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