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The highly-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 194,000 in September, missing…

The highly-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 194,000 in September, missing the market expectation of 500,000 by a wide margin

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Market Focus

The broad U.S. equity market closed lower on Friday’s trading, but most indices closed the week with gains. Dow gained 0.8% over the week, S&P 500 gained 1.2% over the week, and Nasdaq gained 0.1% over the week. Despite the Senate passing a short-term extension to the debt limit on Thursday, market participants are still affected by the looming concerns over inflation and soaring short-term U.S. treasury yields.

Cotton and oil prices have soared over the past week. Cotton has been trading at its highest levels in about a decade, while oil prices have spiked to a seven-year high. Soaring commodity prices will weigh on inflation concerns. On the other hand, the U.S. 10-year yield has advanced through 1.6% during Friday, triggering bearish sentiment across markets.

This week’s economic docket is packed with important data releases from Britain and the U.S. The U.K. unemployment rate and monthly GDP will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. Meanwhile, the U.S. will be releasing CPI and PPI figures over Wednesday and Thursday. FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday as well.

Main Pairs Movement

The highly-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 194,000 in September, missing the market expectation of 500,000 by a wide margin. The greenback came under modest selling pressure after the report was released. US dollar index posted a daily low at 93.940.

On a positive note, August’s print of 235,000 got revised higher to 366,000. Further details of the publication revealed that the Unemployment Rate declined to 4.8% from 5.2% in August, compared to analysts’ estimate of 5.1%. Additionally, the Labor Force Participation Rate edged lower to 61.6% from 61.7%. The wage inflation, as measure by the Average Hourly Earnings, rose 4.6% on a yearly basis, as expected.

The mixed US data did little to the dollar’s strength. Most of the main pairs remain at familiar levels, except for USD/CAD, which plummeted amid the surging oil price. Meanwhile, USD/JPY rose due to the so-called ‘Kishida Shock’, which refers to Japan’s new president Fumio Kishida and his redistribution policies.

XAU/USD lingered around $1750 to $1760 throughout the day. Though once gold price surged to $1781, right after the NFP was released, it was soon back to the thin price range. Gold is trading at $1758.20 as of writing. WTI climbed nearly 1% today, bouncing off once at $80.00, the first time since October 2014. The 10-year US Treasury Yield rose around 2%, breaching the 1.600 threshold.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY (4 Hour Chart)

The Fed’s looming bond taper and the resulting higher Treasury rates are the main order of market business. The USD/JPY will continue to rise as long as Treasury yields push higher. Despite dismal September job numbers, markets remain convinced that the Fed will keep its word and begin a bond program reduction this year.

The USD/JPY is close to the top of its three-year range. Except for the February and March 2020 panic spikes, and a few days in April 2019, the last time the pair spent any time above 112.00 was in the second half of 2018. The area above 112.00 has no recent technical impediments to a rise in the USD/JPY. However, on the flip side, we have instant support for the pair at 112.00, followed by 110.65. There was also strong resistance during July and August. 109.15 is the most robust support for the pair since June.

Resistance: 114.55 (Oct. 2018 high), 118.60 (Jan. 2017 high)

Support: 112.00, 110.65, 109.15

EURUSD (4 Hour Chart)

The Euro is attempting to bounce up from 14-month lows at 1.1535, reaching session highs at 1.158, favoured by a weaker-than-expected U.S. Nonfarm payrolls report. The pair, however, remains on the defensive, after having depreciated about 0.5% in a three-day decline. The Greenback is pulling back against its main peers on Friday, weighed by worse-than-expected U.S. private employment numbers. Furthermore, the unemployment rate declined to 4.8% from 5.2% in August.

On the technical front, the RSI continues to trim the weakness at the higher stages, closing around 49, suggesting neutral market movement ahead. For averages, the 15-long indicator has turned its slide to an uptrend, while the 60-long remains on its descent. For the MACD, the indicator continues extending its positive momentum.

On the slip side, we expect the last time low, 1.153, will give the pair short-term support guidance. If it breaks the threshold, we foresee the downside support will eye the psychological level at 1.15.

Resistance: 1.161, 1.1675

Support: 1.153, 1.15

USDCAD (4 Hour Chart)

Loonie plummeted during the New York session, trading at 1.2475, down 0.58% in the day market. It touched its lowest stage since July 30 after the job report showed that the country has now recovered all of the 3 million jobs lost during the pandemic. Meanwhile, the West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures hit $80 per barrel for the very first time since November 2014, whereas the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is rising and sitting at 1.6% as of writing.

From a technical perspective, the RSI index has slipped into overbought territory at 24.3 as of writing, suggesting a sell-off sentiment at the moment. On the moving average indicator, the 15- and 60-long indicators are still showing downside movement.

Since the Loonie rapidly broke through a critical support levle at 1.25, we expect the next downward support will be last July’s low at 1.2425. On upside, the psychological level at 1.25 will turn into a pivotal resistance for the short-term, behind 1.256.

Resistance: 1.25, 1.256

Support: 1.2425, 1.23

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Gold slid on Thursday, down 0.43%, after the US economy looked like…

Gold slid on Thursday, down 0.43%, after the US economy looked like it would gradually recover according to the jobless data on Wednesday

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Market Focus

US markets rallied on Thursday as lawmakers finally reached a deal to increase the debt ceiling in the short-term. Dow Jones jumped roughly 1%, Nasdaq rose 1.1%, while the S&P climbed 0.8%. The majority of stocks turned around as investors are temporary relieved about the news that the US will avoid an unprecedented default, for now. Currently, the market is awaiting the release of the US Nonfarm payrolls, which is scheduled to be on Friday.

The Asian market is set to open higher as China’s markets are going to resume after a week- long holiday known as the golden week. In China, markets are likely to concentrate on the debt woes in its property sector and Beijing’s updated regulations to limit monopolistic behavior.

Elsewhere, oil prices rebounded after the US mentioned that it had no plans at the moment to increase its output to calm rising oil prices. In the meantime, the price of iron ore looks to wriggle as markets see the strength amid concerns that Chinese demand is evaporating.

Main Pairs Movement

Gold slid on Thursday, down 0.43%, after the US economy looked like it would gradually recover according to the jobless data on Wednesday. With ongoing improvements in the labour market, the US Fed is likely to accelerate the reduction of its monetary support soon. The price of bullion is likely to waver from Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls data. As of now, gold is waiting for catalysts to move up and down.

WTI crude oil held steadily high as the energy benchmark cheered for upbeat market sentiment. Oil prices got fueled by the US Department of Energy’s suggestion that there will be no consideration currently to release and increase the national reserves, keeping the oil supply crunch on the table.

The Japanese Yen looks to be undermined against the US dollar as US bond yields rise, which potentially reduces the interest for the safe-haven currency. By the end of the day, USDJPY closed with 111.607, 0.19% higher.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY (4 hour Chart)

The USD/JPY pair recovered over 30 pips from its daily swing lows and climbed to fresh daily tops, last seen around the 111.60 region during the North American session.

A combination of factors assisted the USD/JPY pair to attract some dip-buying near the 111.20 region on Thursday. The risk-on impulse in the markets was seen as a key factor that undermined the safe-haven Japanese Yen and extended some support to the major. This, along with a modest pickup in the US dollar demand, provided a modest lift.

For buyers to resume the attack to 112.00 and beyond, they would need a daily close above 111.50. In case of that outcome, the next supply zone would be 112.00; on the flip side, the first support level is 111.00, followed by the September 8 high at 110.42, then at 110.00.

The RSI indicator is at 62.50 and modestly bullish, suggesting the consolidation of the pair may come to an end as the uptrend resumes.

Resistance: 112.00, 114.26 (Oct. 2018 high)

Support: 111.00, 110.42, 110.00

EURUSD (4 Hour Chart)

After two consecutive days of printing red, reaching a new yearly low at 1.1528, the pair is staging a comeback, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1564, modestly up 0.06% in the day market, during the New York session at the time of writing. The market mood is turning to risk-on mode, portrayed by European stock indices finishing the day hovering between 1.17% and 2.14%. Meanwhile, major US stock indices rose more than 1%, during the day.

On the technical front, the RSI indicator pulled back from overbought territory to the 35 figure, however, it still suggests a bearish sentiment at its current stage. Meanwhile, the Moving Average’s 15- and 60-long indicators both retain descending movement. The MACD is holding at 0, lacking suggestions of movement.

On slip side, we expect the last time low, 1.153, will give the pair short-term support guidance. If break down the threshold, we foresee the downside support will eye the psychological level at 1.15.

Resistance: 1.157, 1.161, 1.1675

Support: 1.153, 1.15

USDCAD (4 Hour Chart)

Loonie broke below the critical support of the last day,1.254, in the day market, where it was also the lowest level since Sept 7. It remains near the lows with a bearish intraday bias, favoured by a weaker dollar and higher crude oil price. The U.S. dollar index is down 0.09%, sitting at 94.14. Furthermore, the U.S. 10-years T-bond benchmark note is advancing to sit at 1.565% as of writing, putting the breaks on the buck’s fall against major currencies. On the political front, Russian president Vladimir Putin has offered to increase natural gas supplies for Europe to deal with the current spike in energy prices.

From a technical perspective, the RSI index fell to 34, suggesting bearish momentum ahead. Meanwhile, the MACD side, indicator turn into negative territory, suggesting a downside movement.

For the slip way, we expecting effectively support will between 1.255 and 1.256. Moreover, if market slip below 1.255, we see next support will be 1.25. On up way, the first resistance will be psychological level at 1.26.

Resistance: 1.256, 1.26, 1.2635

Support: 1.255, 1.25

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Bitcoin breaks above $50k, the first time since early September.

Bitcoin breaks above $50k, the first time since early September.

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Market Focus

The broad U.S. equity index rose during Wednesday’s trading, with the Dow Jones closing 102.32 points in the green, the S&P 500 gaining 0.41%, and the Nasdaq recovering 0.47%.

The U.S. ADP Nonfarm employment change returned better-than-expected results. The report number of 568K, beating analysts’ estimates of 428K.

Despite strong performance by equity indices on Wednesday, volatile market conditions remain as soaring gas prices can potentially weigh on inflation data. Furthermore, the rising bond yield continues to put pressure on the valuation of technology firms.

Market participants will now shift their attention to the Initial Jobless Claims data that will be released on the 7th.

Cryptocurrencies have made a strong comeback after weak performance over the past two months. Bitcoin traded above 50,000 for the first time since early September. On the other hand, “alt-coins”, Etherium specifically, also made strong gains.

Main Pairs Movement

The Japanese Yen is testing its downside as US stocks recover and the US yields climbed with investors’ concern over inflation. USDJPY is trading above the 111.00 level with an eye on the 112 region, where selling pressure is prone to emerge.

GBPUSD climbed higher, approaching 1.3650. After dipping last week, the pound rebounded as the markets seem to have shifted their focus from the fuel shortage to the impact of the Bank of England, and whether it will lead the major central banks on hiking rates.

Gold declined, trading at $1759 as US Treasury yields edged higher after data from last week boosted optimism about economic recovery. In the meanwhile, the decline in gold also came from the dollar rebound, pressuring bullion, which did not earn interest.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY (Daily Chart)

GBP/JPY has breached both the 200-DMA at 150.18 and the 50-DMA at 151.36 and bounced once off the 152.00 price level. It is trading at 151.90 as of writing.

If GBP/JPY buyers would like to resume the uptrend, they would need a daily close above 152.00. In case of that outcome, it could pave the way for further gains. The first resistance level would be 152.55, with the key zone being the confluence of the September 28 high and the 100-DMA. A breach of that level would expose July’s peak, 153.50, followed by the yearly peak of 156.08.

On the other hand, a retreat heading to the 50-DMA could exert downward pressure in the cross-currency. The first support level would be the 50-DMA, 151.30. A daily close below that level could push the price towards the 200-DMA at 150.18, immediately followed by October’s first low at 149.22.

Both the RSI indicator and MACD histogram are above the middle line, supporting the upside bias, but caution is warranted as the negative macro impact looms.

Resistance: 111.50, 112.00

Support: 111.00, 110.42, 110.00

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

GBP/JPY has breached both the 200-DMA at 150.18 and the 50-DMA at 151.36 and bounced once off the 152.00 price level. It is trading at 151.90 as of writing.

If GBP/JPY buyers would like to resume the uptrend, they would need a daily close above 152.00. In case of that outcome, it could pave the way for further gains. The first resistance level would be 152.55, with the key zone being the confluence of the September 28 high and the 100-DMA. A breach of that level would expose July’s peak, 153.50, followed by the yearly peak of 156.08.

On the other hand, a retreat heading to the 50-DMA could exert downward pressure in the cross-currency. The first support level would be the 50-DMA, 151.30. A daily close below that level could push the price towards the 200-DMA at 150.18, immediately followed by October’s first low at 149.22.

Both the RSI indicator and MACD histogram are above the middle line, supporting the upside bias, but caution is warranted as the negative macro impact looms.

Resistance: 111.50, 112.00

Support: 111.00, 110.42, 110.00

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Loonie closed the previous four days in the negative area, but managed to stage a slight rebound on Wednesday. After reaching a daily high of 1.2648, however, the pair lost its bullish momentum and erased a portion of its daily gains. As of writing, the Loonie is barely advancing and closed below 1.26 at 1.2586 during the New York session. The market sentiment has been dismal throughout the day, with investors nervous due to surging oil and gas prices, U.S. political uncertainties, and central banks tightening monetary policy.

From a technical perspective, the RSI index slightly retreated from yesterday’s bleak close at 41, suggesting bearish momentum ahead. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator shows positive territory, but figures converged during the market close.

For the slipway, it seems to not have much downside support level past the last support at 1.256, while we expect effective support will be between 1.255 and 1.256. On up way, the first resistance will be psychological level at 1.26.

Resistance: 1.26, 1.2638

Support: 1.256

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