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U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly jumped to 286,000 for the week of…

U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly jumped to 286,000 for the week of Jan. 7, the highest level since late October

20220121
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Market Focus

Wall Street’s major indexes continued their sharp losses on Thursday, especially late in the session as investors considered whether stocks were cheap after a sell-off at the start of the year while the Nasdaq slipped into correction territory. In addition, the S&P 500’s plummet was largely driven by a slump in consumer discretionary stocks and renewed weakness after tech stocks failed to hold on to their intraday gains for the second day in a row. At the end of the market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.89% to 34,715.39 points, the S&P 500 index lost 1.10% to 4,482.73 and the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 1.3% to 14,154.02 points.

10 of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500 ended lower, with the consumer discretionary sector down 1.9%, followed by the materials sector, down 1.43%, and the lone winner was utilities, which edged up 0.1%. Consumer discretionary stocks were led lower by Amazon, Garmin and VF Corporation, which lost 1.30%, 6.05% and 5.73%, respectively. On the other hand, the Dow’s worst intraday performances were Dow Inc. down 3.39%, Intel Corp down 2.95% and Home Depot down 2.81%.

Main Pairs Movement

Disappointing U.S. jobs-related data weakened the dollar in the U.S. session, with initial jobless claims unexpectedly jumping to 286K for the week of Jan. 7, the highest level since late October. However, as the three major indexes plummeted, the dollar index began to soar and reached around 96.

Sterling was down just 0.1% at the end of the day. A lack of specific data was released, but the pair gained 0.6% intraday as the Greenback weakened. However, the pound then fell as the Greenback strengthened. On Friday, core retail sales data and comments from BOE members may provide some direction on the way forward.

A similar situation occurred with the euro, which rose first and then fell against the dollar. ECB President Christine Lagarde is due to speak later in the day, but a rate hike remains less likely.

Gold settled little-changed at around $1,840 an ounce but managed to hit a fresh two-month high of $1,847.92. Meanwhile, crude prices surged to fresh multi-year highs, with WTI hitting $87.08 a barrel and Brent hitting $89.46 a barrel.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (Daily Chart)

Cable made a mild slide in the Asian session but jumped fiercely at the start of the European trading hours, extending further north after dismal US job data was released, which weighed heavily on the dollar’s demands. The pair now trades around 1.3645, posting 0.23% gains during the intraday trades. The rate competition between the hawkish Bank of England and the Federal Reserve will continue to be the main driver to Cable’s future price actions, as the Fed has announced its rate hike timetable that has been priced in by the market, we expect that GBP/USD to climb further once new BoE hawkish policies being announced. Investors’ eyes are now on the February 3rd BoE meeting.

On the technical front, the RSI for Cable remains around 60, and the pair has settled above its 20 and 50 DMA, and is eyeing the critical 200-day one. Cable is lingering around the 1.3640-50 level at the moment. On the upside, if the pair break through its 200 DMA, the next resistance will be at 1.3830, then 1.3900; on the flip side, if the pair failed to cling on the 1.3600 level, the next effective support will appear at 1.3400, followed by 1.3200, where the one-year lows lie.

Resistance: 1.3734 (200 DMA), 1.3830, 1.3900

Support: 1.36600, 1.3400, 1.3200

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

The euro pair is holding the lower ground below 1.1350 as the US dollar attempts a bounce in tandem with the Treasury yields amid a risk-on mood. The sentiment on Wall Street has improved quite a bit, in anticipation of corporate earnings reports. That fuelled a fresh sell-off in the US Treasuries, which in turn, prompted the yields to resume their uptrend. The upturn in the yields lifted the sentiment around the dollar at the euro’s expense. The escalating Russia-Ukraine crisis, with has seen the US imposing sanctions on four Ukrainian officials and accusing them of destabilizing Ukraine, also boosted demand for the safe-haven US dollar.

On the technical side, the EUR/USD pair’s price action has shifted to the south, heading to the next retracement line at around 1.1300. The RSI for the pair continues to fall and is now reading 47.74, showing a stronger downside pressure weighing on Euro. As previously mentioned, the pair could fall over the 1.1300 support and then season lows around the 1.1200 support. The pair is still capped by its 20 and 200 DMA, slightly above the 50 DMA.

Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1440,1.1500

Support: 1.1300, 1.1200

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold price remains almost unchanged on the day around $1,841 a troy ounce, as it fades its uptick from fresh two-month highs of $1,848. The latest leg down in gold price could be associated with a tepid bounce seen in the US Treasury yields, which helps put a fresh bid under the dollar. Additionally, a broad rebound across markets fuels risk-on flows, dulling gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Despite the pullback, the yellow metal remains supported by soaring inflation globally and negative real returns, along with escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding the US, Russia and Ukraine amid a probable invasion by the Kremlin of the latter.

From the technical perspective, the RSI bias continues to point to the upside, after breaking the $1830 area on Wednesday. Since the next resistance lies $20 above the current price level, there’s still room for the gold’s traction. As previously mentioned, we expect the short-term uptrend to reach the critical $1,860 resistance, though the downside risk will gradually increase during its climb.

Resistance: 1860, 1900

Support: 1830, 1800, 1765

20220121
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Bitcoin has fallen back below 42,000, more than a 35% drop from…

Bitcoin has fallen back below 42,000, more than a 35% drop from its November 2021 high

20220120
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Market Focus

The broad U.S. equity markets continued to fall on Wednesday’s trading. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 0.96% to close at 35,028.65, the S&P 500 lost 0.97% to close at 4532.76, and the Nasdaq composite lost 1.15% to close at 14,340.25. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield continues to edge higher and is currently sitting at 1.865%. Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield inched higher as well and is currently at 2.169%.

With earnings seasons well underway, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley have both reported better-than-expected earnings results. However, the broad equity market is already bracing for the Fed’s imminent rate hike. Among the 11 sectors that make up the S&P 500, only consumer staples and utilities were able to post moderate gains.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market suffered as well. Bitcoin has fallen back below 42,000, more than a 35% drop from its November 2021 high. Ethereum lost 2.53% against the dollar and is currently trading at 3114.36.

Main Pairs Movement

The Dollar Index, which measures the Greenback against a basket of major foreign currencies, dropped 0.11% over the course of yesterday’s trading.

Cable gained 0.13% over the course of yesterday’s trading. Britain’s CPI data indicated the largest inflationary pressure in nearly 30 years. Market participants interpreted this information as a possible trigger for the BOE increase interest rates once again.

The Euro gained against the Dollar amid broad-based Dollar weakness. With interest rate divergence on the horizon, upward momentum for the Euro remains weak.

Gold enjoyed a 1.48% gain against the dollar over the course of yesterday’s trading. With inflation rising globally, market participants have once again turned to the precious metal as a hedge against inflation.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (Daily Chart)

Cable regained traction and rebounded on Wednesday, signalling an end of a three-day retreat, triggered by a double rejection at 200 DMA (1.3736) last week. Sterling was boosted by UK CPI data, which showed that inflation in Britain continues to rise and has hit the highest level in nearly 30 years in December, hammering policymakers’ general view of the transitory process and boosting hopes for another BoE’s rate hike on its February 3rd meeting.

On the technical front, owing to the fundamental supports, the RSI indicator bounced back to 60, suggesting a recovery in the bulls’ strength. Cable has jumped above the 1.3600 resistance and is heading to the critical 200 DMA pressure level at the moment. A breakthrough of that level indicates that there’s more room for Pound to appreciate, eyeing on 1.3830.

Resistance: 1.3736 (200 DMA), 1.3830, 1.3900

Support: 1.3500, 1.3400, 1.3200

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

The EUR/USD pair is following its British peer’s rally with a modest 0.2% gain, which has barely regained about a quarter of its Tuesday’s decline. However, considering the weak outlook of the monetary policy divergences between the two central banks, and the risk of losses on Russia and Ukraine tensions, it is expected that the pair will eventually break under 1.1300 in the near term, and potentially post a fresh 2-year low as the Fed’s tightening cycle kicks off.

From a technical perspective, if the Euro pair doesn’t recover to the 38.2% Fibonacci during today’s trading, it shows that its intraday gains are nothing but a mild correction. The RSI for the pair marks 49.47, indicating the shared currency remains under selling pressure. On the downside, the pair could fall over the 1.1300 support and then season lows around the 1.1200 support. The pair is still capped by its 20 and 200 DMA, slightly above the 50 DMA.

Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1440,1.1500

Support: 1.1300, 1.1200

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold’s upside momentum has waned in recent trading, with prices trading in more of a subdued manner near $1842 after bursting above resistance in the $1830s for the first time in over two months. The speed of the pair’s latest advances, especially between the $1830 to $1840 area, is suggestive of a stop run, as many short traders may have had their stop loss sat somewhere in the $1830s. However, it is unlikely that spot gold can resist the advances of the US dollar and US real yields forever, and expectations for a very hawkish Fed in 2022 suggest continued upside risks for both.

From the technical perspective, though gold’s intraday hike, the pair’s mid-term bearish tractions are still above the price action. Gold is now trading above all its moving averages, and the RSI indicator reads 62.12, suggesting a bullish outlook. We expect the short-term uptrend to reach the critical $1,860 resistance, though the downside risk will get bigger and bigger during its climb.

Resistance: 1860, 1900

Support: 1830, 1800, 1765

20220120
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Treasury yields surged to the milestones, with the 10-year yield at 1.856%…

Treasury yields surged to the milestones, with the 10-year yield at 1.856% and the 2-year yield over 1%

20220119
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Market Focus

Wall Street’s main indexes fell sharply on Tuesday as soaring U.S. Treasury yields hit tech stocks in the U.S. and Europe, while losses at Goldman Sachs led to losses in U.S. financial stocks. U.S. 10-year yields have risen to a two-year high of 1.875%, while two-year yields also rose above 1%, as traders brace for the Federal Reserve to be more aggressive in tackling unabated inflation. At closing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1.51% to 35,368.47 points, the S&P 500 index lost 1.84% to 4,577.11 and the Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 2.6% to 14,506.9 points. European tech stocks were also under pressure, falling 2.2% and causing the pan-European STOXX 600 index to drop as much as 1.44% during the session before closing lower by 0.97%.

Of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500, 10 ended lower, with information technology being the biggest loser, down 2.48%, followed by interest-rate-sensitive financials, down 2.27%. Energy, the biggest gainer so far in 2022, was the only sector in positive territory, up 0.4%. Large-cap stocks such as Microsoft, Apple and Meta fell 2.43%, 1.89% and 4.14% respectively, weighing on the information technology sector. In addition, the worst-performing of the Dow Jones index was the Goldman Sachs Group, which fell 6.97%, JPMorgan Chase fell 4.19%, and Cisco Systems fell 2.66%. The worst performers on the S&P 500 were Moderna Inc, down 8.85%, Applied Materials, down 8.77%, and KLA-Tencor Corporation, down 7.20%.

Main Pairs Movement

The U.S. dollar was the overall winner compared to all its major competitors. U.S. Treasury yields surged to the milestones, with the 10-year yield at 1.856% and the 2-year yield over 1%. Stocks edged lower and global indices closed lower.

As Treasury yields continued to rise, the dollar was fueled. The Dollar Index moved on its winning streak, gaining 0.5% to end at 95.7.

Cable started to fall and dipped below 1.3600. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in the three months since November, while the number of unemployed fell by 43.3K in December. Meanwhile, a scandal over Downing Street parties has put Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s leadership at risk during Britain’s worst lockdown.

The same pattern scenario was seer for EUR/USD. After reaching the 1.14500 level, the pair declined and is currently back in the consolidation zone. Despite Germany’s ZEW survey showing a sharp rebound in economic sentiment, it offered little help for the euro.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (Daily Chart)

Cable headed south for the third consecutive day as the hawkish Fed rate hike timetable has finally taken effect. The GBP/USD pair traded sideways during the Asia-Pacific session, but then plummeted at the beginning of European trading hours, and dropped further after the Wall Street opening as US equities opened low. That said, the tightened US policies and the risk-off market mood boosted the greenback.

On the technical front, the RSI indicator reads 56.23 as of writing, having retreated from yesterday’s 60s, suggesting a depletion in the bulls’ strength. Moreover, Cable has made several attempts to regain 1.3600 intraday but failed, indicating that a strong selling power is hovering around that critical resistance level, and making the pair’s comeback more difficult.

Resistance: 1.3600, 1.3736 (200 DMA), 1.3830

Support: 1.3500, 1.3400, 1.3200

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

The euro pair’s price actions are similar to Cable ones, but as the ECB is more conservative in monetary policies, the shared currency is more vulnerable to unfavourable circumstances such as the recent US dollar rally and equity crashes. The pair is now hovering around 1.1330, seventy pips down during today’s trading with the negative tone intact.

On the technical side, if the EUR/USD pair fails to recover over 38.2% Fibonacci, then it could remain under pressure, looking at the 1.1300 zone and then season lows around the 1.1200 support. The slide pushed the pair back below all its major moving averages and into the previous consolidation phase in December 2021.

Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1440,1.1500

Support: 1.1300, 1.1200

USDCAD (Daily Chart)

Loonie has had a subdued session on Tuesday, with the pair having dropped back to trading just above its 200-day moving average at the 1.2500 level after briefly surpassing the 1.2550 mark midway through US trading. Surging crude oil prices failed to push USD/CAD below support in the 1.2500 area, with the pair supported by a broad recovery in the US dollar as US government bond yields advanced to reflect new hawkish Fed tightening bets ahead of next week’s meeting.

From the technical perspective, the pair’s mid-term bearish traction seems to have weakened a lot during January’s trading, indicating that the recent sharp pullback from the December high might soon be over. That said, repeated failures to find acceptance below the 1.2500 mark shows the unlikelihood to set off any further near-term depreciating moves.

Resistance: 1.2550, 1.2630, 1.2700

Support: 1.2450, 1.2290

20220119
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