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Gold continues its rise, the FOMC’s rate decision could bring tremendous price…

Gold continues its rise, the FOMC’s rate decision could bring tremendous price action to the precious metal

Market Focus U.S. equity markets continue to be turbulent ahead of FOMC’s press conference scheduled on the 27th. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 0.19% to close at …

20220126
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Market Focus

U.S. equity markets continue to be turbulent ahead of FOMC’s press conference scheduled on the 27th. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 0.19% to close at 34,297.73, the S&P 500 slid 1.22% to close at 4,356.45 and the Nasdaq composite slumped 2.28% to close at 13,539.29. All three major equity indices experienced a sharp sell-off to start the session, but saw quick recovery mid-session and then were faced with another correction towards the close. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slid slightly to 1.778%, while the 30-year Treasury yield sits at 2.124%.

Microsoft released better than expected earnings after the bell. Microsoft’s revenue increased by 20% year over year in the quarter, and net income surged by 21% to $18.77 billion. Despite better-than-expected operating results, shares of Microsoft traded lower during the session but were positive after the earnings release.

Johnson & Johnson reported 4th quarter sales of $24.8 billion and 2021 full fiscal year sales of $93.8 billion, a growth of 13.6% growth year over year. Tesla is due to release earnings on the 26th.

Main Pairs Movement

The Dollar Index gained 0.1% over the course of yesterday’s trading and the index has recovered all the lost ground since January 11th. Dollar strength could be a reflection of market participants’ anticipation ahead of the FOMC’s press conference.

Cable gained a modest 0.05% during yesterday’s trading, which was the second straight session of gains for the Sterling. If the 1.348 support level continues to hold, Cable could finally break out of its yearlong downward trend.

The euro continues to trade lower against the dollar. The EURUSD pair lost 0.21% over the course of yesterday’s trading and saw an intraday low of 1.126, but the pair was able to recover once the U.S. session began.

Gold continues its rise as global inflation sentiment remains high. The FOMC’s rate decision could bring tremendous price action to the precious metal. $1867 presents itself as the nearest resistance level for XAUUSD.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (Daily Chart)

Seesawing around 1.3500, GBP/USD is flat but turning green on the day following a recovery from the lows of 1.3436 and retesting the previous downtrend resistance. The US dollar has fallen under pressure as the 10-year yields remain capped by the dismal market mood. Meanwhile, the markets are in high anticipation of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and accompanying statement. The fundamental outlook for the UK remains unclear.

On the technical front, earlier in the US session, 1.3500 was noted as an anchor point from which bulls would be expected to struggle to pull away from. However, a key level of resistance was penetrated and a higher high for the day was scored all the way towards 1.3520. At the very end of today’s trading, cable dropped back to near 1.3500 level as the downside pressure enhanced, leaving the day flat.

Resistance: 1.3600, 1.3830, 1.3900

Support: 1.3400, 1.3200

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

During the first half of the North American session, the EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1325 towards the figure, giving way for USD bulls, who secured a 40-pip move to the daily low of the day at 1.1263. Then, as the New York session progressed, EUR bulls entered the market, reclaiming the 1.1300 figure. The slump today is attributed to a risk-off market mood that has spurred demand for safe-haven assets. Factors like the Ukraine-Russia crisis and the Fed’s first monetary policy meeting of the year are keeping market participants uneasy, as portrayed by US equities trading in the red. At the time of writing, the shared currency is trading at 1.1300.

On the technical front, the Euro pair is neutral-downward biased. The 50 DMA has moved close to the spot price, leading the way for the longer time-frame ones, with the 100-DMA and the 200-DMA are lying at 1.1469 and 1.1708 respectively. Nevertheless, the bias is downward as long as the exchange rate remains below the former. On the downside, the first support of the pair would appear at the 23.6% Fibonacci, which is around 1.1300, then we have the 2-year lows around 1.1200, which is the last barricade before the pair drops further.

Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1440,1.1500

Support: 1.1300, 1.1200

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold bounced off the $1,850 per troy ounce psychological resistance but fell to the previous price levels afterwards. The upside traction of the yellow metal on Tuesday may be due to investors’ escalating concerns about Wednesday’s Fed talks and the crucial Q421 and yearly report of Apple Inc., the world’s largest company by market cap. The pair is now trading at $1,846, up 0.2% intraday and the momentum remains strong amid the widespread risk-off sentiments.

From the technical perspective, gold now hovers around the psychological block at $1,850. The pair is upside biased, with the major DMAs below the spot price, and the RSI reads showing yet another breach over $1,850 is highly likely to occur later the day. However, the long-lasting downward slope leaves the yellow metal under downside risk. As mentioned yesterday, gold’s first resistance would be at the $1,860s, and then its last summer’s highs at around $1,900. On the other hand, gold’s first support is at $1,830. A breach of the latter would expose the next support at $1,800, followed by the November lows around $1,765.

Resistance: 1860, 1900

Support: 1830, 1800, 1765

20220126
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Natural gas remained depressed as global demand for the commodity wanes

Natural gas remained depressed as global demand for the commodity wanes

20220125
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Market Focus

U.S. equity markets experienced a turbulent trading session, as all three major equity indices dropped at the bell, but were able to mount an incredible comeback. The Dow Jones industrial average clawed back 0.29% to close at 34,364.5, the S&P 500 gained 0.28% to close at 4,410.13, and the Nasdaq composite gained 0.63% to close at 13,855.13. The Dow Jones industrial average clawed back more than 1000 points after being down 1,115 points mid-session. The benchmark U.S. 10 year treasury yield edged higher to 1.774% and the 30-year Treasury yield also moved higher to 2.114%.

Earnings season continues as Microsoft Corporation, Johnson & Johnson, and Verizon Communications Inc. are all due to report their 4th quarter earnings after the markets close on the 25th. Mixed earnings have been reported so far. The financial sector has already reported some missed earnings targets, but market participants will continue to monitor earnings from the technology sector, which would be the most impacted sector by an interest rate hike. The FOMC will meet on Wednesday, followed by a press conference where chairman Jerome Powell will provide guidance on the monetary policies ahead.

Main Pairs Movement

The Dollar Index rallied over the course of yesterday’s trading, but the index pulled back as market participants rotated into equities that fueled the equity markets’ impressive comeback.

Natural gas remained depressed as global demand for the commodity wanes. Interest in this commodity remains weak as open interest continues to falter.

The euro-dollar pair traded lower amid dollar strength. EURUSD traded below 1.3 as the American session began but was able to repair losses as market participants saw an opportunity to enter.

Gold ended its two-day losing streak as market participants boost the precious metal above the key resistance level at 1,840.

Technical Analysis

Natural Gas (Daily Chart)

Open interest in natural gas futures markets shrank for the third consecutive session on Friday, this time by around 2.3K contracts, according to advanced prints from CME Group. Volume reversed two daily builds in a row and went down by around 145.5K contracts.

Friday’s decent gains in prices of natural gas were supported by short-covering, as noted by declining open interest and volume. Against this, further gains appear not favoured in the very near term, with the RSI dropping below the average line. The door is still open to a visit to the $3.550 region per MMBtu, or December lows.

Resistance: 4.100, 4.800, 5.500

Support: 3.800, 3.550

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

EUR/USD held up well on Monday despite the market’s deeply risk-off tone, with the pair finding good dip-buying interest when it hit the 1.1300 level earlier in the session and recovering to trade flat on the day in the 1.1320s. As has been the case for the past four sessions, the price action continues, for the most part, to stick between the 20 and 50-day moving averages at 1.1350 and 1.1315 respectively.

On the technical side, the shared currency’s price action remains around the 23.6% to 38.2% Fibonacci consolidation range. The RSI indicator reads 47.64, showing a slightly bearish tone. As mentioned last Friday, if the pair manages to rise back above the 38.2% Fibonacci, then the outlook would improve. On the downside, a solid break under the 23.6% Fibonacci should clear the way for more losses and to a test of the bottom of the retracement lines.

Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1440,1.1500

Support: 1.1300, 1.1200

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold is headed for a positive close on Monday following a heavily risk-off session and a run for safer havens. At the time of writing, gold is up 0.3% after climbing from a low of $1,829.76 and settling around the $1,840 price levels, with eyes on the psychological $1,850 level.

From the technical perspective, Gold has achieved to stay above the critical $1,830 price level in the last three trading days. XAU/USD is neutral-upward biased, as portrayed by the major DMAs below the spot price, but its horizontal slope leaves the yellow metal under downward pressure. On the upside, gold’s first resistance would be the robust $1,860, and for cases that breach the long-lasting downtrend, the pair could reach its last summer’s highs at around $1,900; On the flip side, gold’s first support is at $1,830. A breach of the latter would expose the next support at $1,800, followed by the November lows around $1,765.

Resistance: 1860, 1900

Support: 1830, 1800, 1765

20220125
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Weaker than expected retail sales figures from the U.K., with FOMC’s press…

Weaker than expected retail sales figures from the U.K., with FOMC’s press conference nearing, Cable faces strong downward pressure

20220124
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Market Focus

U.S. equity markets continued their losses on the last trading day of the week. The Dow Jones industrial average slid 1.3% to close at 34,265.37, the S&P 500 lost 1.89% to close at 4,397.94, and the Nasdaq lost 2.72% to close at 13,768.92. The Nasdaq was heavily drawn down mainly due to fears caused by Netflix and Peleton. The two companys’ share prices enjoyed healthy gains throughout 2021, as consumers demanded in-home entertainment. However, with people returning to pre-pandemic entertainment outlets and the Fed reserves’ imminent monetary tightening, these two companies are in desperate need of adjusting their operating strategies as 2022 unfolds. Share prices of Netflix have dropped in excess of 23% since the beginning of this trading week.

The benchmark U.S. 10 year treasury yield declined slightly to 1.771%, while the 30-year Treasury yield slid to 2.085%.

Looking ahead at next week’s economic docket, Thursday the 27th will be packed with the FOMC press conference, U.S. quarterly GDP data release, and U.S. initial jobless claim figures. These three events will have great impact on how the markets will close out the first month of 2022.

Main Pairs Movement

With U.S. Treasury yields receding, the Dollar index faltered as well. The DXY closed 0.14% lower after Friday’s trading but was still able to close the week with a 0.67% gain against a basket of major foreign currencies.

Cable slid 0.33% over the course of Friday’s trading. Weaker than expected retail sales figures from the U.K. sent the Sterling tumbling against the Greenback. With FOMC’s press conference nearing, Cable faces strong downward pressure.

The Euro gained 0.3% against the Greenback on Friday. The Greenback’s across-the-board weakness allowed the Euro to recoup some of its intra-week losses.

Gold lost 0.26% on Friday but ended the week with a solid near 1% gain. The precious metal continues to embody positive sentiment as inflationary pressure around the world continues to rise.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (Daily Chart)

GBP/USD broke out to fresh weekly lows on Friday and has continued to press lower as the US trading session has gotten underway, with the Sterling succumbing to weak data and risk-off flows that are weighing broadly on risk-sensitive currencies. Data released by the UK’s ONS on Friday showed that headline Retail Sales dropped 3.7% MoM, much larger than expectations for a 0.6% MoM decline. At current levels just above the 1.3550 mark, GBP/USD is now trading about 0.3% lower on the day, taking on the week losses to about 0.9%.

On the technical front, with the latest drop taking the pair back below the 20 DMA for the first time since this time last month, Cable’s bulls will be concerned that GBP’s near-term momentum has turned negative. The main area of support for Cable traders to now keep an eye on is at the 1.3500 level, as a breach of that level indicates that the pair will return to its past downtrend. The RSI for Cable has dropped drastically, from its 60s to around the average line.

Resistance: 1.3733 (200 DMA), 1.3830, 1.3900

Support: 1.3600, 1.3400, 1.3200

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

The euro pair is rising on Friday, and after the beginning of the American session, it peaked at 1.1361 and then pulled back. The US dollar is posting mixed results across the board, ahead of the weekend. The upside lost momentum amid risk aversion. Equity prices on Wall Street are falling again, with the Dow Jones losing 1.30% and the Nasdaq 1.89%. The negative tone is boosting Treasuries. The 10-year yield stands at 1.762%, while the 30-year is at 2.076, both at one-week lows.

On the technical side, the shared currency’s price action is back into the previous consolidation range seesawing around the 23.6% Fibonacci. The RSI indicator reads 49.54, showing no obvious traction from either side. If the pair manages to rise back above 38.2% Fibonacci the outlook would improve. On the downside, a solid break under 23.6% Fibonacci should clear the way for more losses and to a test of the bottom of the retracement lines.

Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1440,1.1500

Support: 1.1300, 1.1200

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold prices slid a bit to the south during today’s trading, closing the week at $1,835 a troy ounce which is the second straight week it has ended in positive territory. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the People’s Bank of China’s efforts to loosen their policy amid worsening economic outlook and the steep drop seen in Wall Street are the main drivers for gold’s recent rally. However, on Wednesday, the Fed will announce its policy rate decision and release the Monetary Policy Statement following its two-day meeting. A decision to increase the reductions in monthly asset purchases or 50 bps rate hike in March or worse, both, could weigh hugely on the demand of the bright metal.

From the technical perspective, the RSI bias remains above the average line, after breaking the $1830 area on Wednesday. Since the next resistance lies $25 above the current price level, there’s still room for the gold’s traction. As previously mentioned, we expect the short-term uptrend to reach the critical $1,860 resistance, though the downside risk will gradually increase during its climb.

Resistance: 1860, 1900

Support: 1830, 1800, 1765

20220124
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