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Bitcoin held steadily above $60,000 as the first Bitcoin futures ETF is…

Bitcoin held steadily above $60,000 as the first Bitcoin futures ETF is set to launch this Tuesday

Market Focus US stocks were mixed amid inflation concerns on Monday. Investors are betting on a continuation of strong earnings reports from major companies while concerned about the …

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Market Focus

US stocks were mixed amid inflation concerns on Monday. Investors are betting on a continuation of strong earnings reports from major companies while concerned about the prospect of a tightening monetary policy to restrain inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.1% while the S&P 500 climbed 0.3%. At the same time, the Nasdaq rose 0.8% at the end of the day.

The collapsing spread between 5- year and 30-year yields is raising concerns about a potential slowdown in economic growth. The shrink might be due to the consideration that the US Federal Reserve may lift rates sooner than expected. Moreover, according to Bloomberg, US inflation expectations have been continuously rising to new peaks in years.

Bitcoin held steadily above $60,000 as the first Bitcoin futures ETF is set to launch this Tuesday, a milestone for the cryptocurrency industry.

Main Pairs Movement

The Greenback shed some ground on Monday, although it ended the day mixed across the FX board and within familiar levels. A light macroeconomic calendar has kept investors depending on market sentiment for direction, the latter of which is following US government bond yields. Speaking of which, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note peaked at 1.627% but finished the day at around 1.58%.

The Dollar edged lower against most of its major rivals. The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1610, while GBP/USD stands at 1.3730. The AUD/USD pair and USD/JPY finished the day unchanged while USD/CAD ticked lower despite weakening crude oil prices.

Gold ended the day with modest losses at around $1,764.60 a troy ounce. Crude oil prices hit fresh multi-year highs before retreating. WTI settled at $81.50 a barrel.

Attention has now shifted to UK inflation data as the Bank of England has hinted at a possible rate hike as its first move in the case that inflation rises above the desired levels. 

Technical Analysis

USDCAD (4-Hour Chart)

The USD/CAD pair continued consolidating throughout the first half of the European session and once stepped on the 1.2400 level, but soon fell over 30 pips after the American opening. Loonie’s weakness resulted from higher inflationary pressures and the looming tapering of major central banks. The pair was last seen at 1.2375.

However, falling crude oil prices, along with robust US bond yields, may weigh on the appreciating CAD. WTI has been losing over 0.5%, and is currently trading at $81.90. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is still lingering above 1.55, proving demand for the Greenback.

On the technical front, the Loonie has already lost track of its 4-month-old uptrend at the start of October and has fallen below all of its key moving averages. The downward traction is now attacking the robust 38.2% Fibonacci support. If breached, then there will be no practical support ahead of the 23.6% Fibonacci. On the flipside, to resume its previous uptrend, the pair should revisit the key 200-DMA, which should first regain the 50% and 61.8% Fibonaccis.

Resistance: 1.2425, 1.25, 1.256

Support: 1.23

EURUSD (4-hour Chart)

The Euro advanced during the New York session, up 0.07%, and is trading at 1.161 at the time of writing. During the session, market sentiment conditions improved despite a weaker-than-expected third-quarter GDP printout from China, rising inflationary pressures, and expectations of central banks tightening monetary conditions. Last Saturday, on October 16, ECB President Lagarde said that the ECB is paying very close attention to wage negotiations and other effects that could permanently drive prices higher, although she added that inflation is largely transitory.

On the technical side, the RSI solely moved around 57.97 figures, a slight change compared to yesterday, suggesting slightly bullish movement in the short term. On the moving average aspect, the 15- and 60-long indicators both have flat movement even though they displayed golden crosses earlier.

Because the current price has penetrated the 1.161 level, which we had expected to be critical resistance for upward traction before, it seems that the Euro could continue its bullish movement if it can hold above the threshold. On up side, we expect the immediate resistance will be the psychological level at 1.165, with 1.1675 following.

Resistance: 1.165, 1.1675, 1.171

Support: 1.153, 1.15, 1.161

USDJPY (4 Hour Chart)

The Japanese yen barely advanced during the U.S. session, and is up 0.02%, trading at 114.22 at the time of writing. Despite slower-than-expected economic growth in China, there are expectations of higher inflation, with the market being in a risk-on mood. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is flat at press time and is clinging to 1.581%, whereas the U.S Dollar Index, which tracks the Greenback’s performance against a basket of rivals, slid 0.02%, sitting at 93.943. Meanwhile, the yen is close to four-year lows versus the Greenback as higher U.S. T-bond yields, which have a strong positive correlation with the pair, have been rising lately.

From a technical perspective, the RSI indicator has reversed from overbought sentiment at 67.7, suggesting bullish momentum in the short term. On the moving average indicator, the 15- and 60-long indicators are still retaining upside traction.

Since the yen stood above the 114 level solidly for days, it seems to have lost driving momentum without further triggering fundamental news currently. Therefore, the 114 level is still an important support level for buy-side investors.

Resistance: 115

Support: 114.02, 112.57, 112

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The impact of surging US Treasury yields on the Greenback was offset…

The impact of surging US Treasury yields on the Greenback was offset by broader risk-on market sentiment, leaving the Dollar index trading sideways on Friday

20211018
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Market Focus

The broad U.S. equity market enjoyed another positive day on Friday to close out the week with positive gains. Strong 3rd quarter earnings and healthy consumer spending propelled stocks higher on Friday. The S&P 500 gained 0.7% to close at 4471.37, the Dow advanced 1.1% to 35294.76, and Nasdaq gained 0.5% to close at 14897.34.

The financial sector reported healthy earnings for the third quarter. Goldman Sachs Group reported earnings of $5.38 billion for the third quarter, a 60% year over year gain. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley reported a 36% year over year earnings gain.

Retail sales for September increased 0.7%, beating estimates. Rising retail sales figures could ease some investors’ concerns over a slowing economy and inflation.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose again on Friday, and the benchmark is currently sitting at 1.574%. Oil prices leapt further on Friday as demand for oil picked up as global governments began easing pandemic-era travel restrictions. The U.S. will lift COVID-19 travel restrictions for fully vaccinated foreigners effective November 8th. The Brent Crude future gained 1% to settle at $84.86 a barrel, and the WTI future gained 1.2% to settle at $82.28 a barrel.

Main Pairs Movement

The impact of surging US Treasury yields on the Greenback was offset by broader risk-on market sentiment, leaving the Dollar index trading sideways on Friday. With the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holding above the critical 1.5% handle, the Dollar has stayed resilient during the early European session on Friday. In the second half of the day, though the upbeat September Retail Sales report slightly boosted the Dollar, the following Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data underperformed and dragged the dollar index down to the 94.00 threshold.

The EUR/USD pair is treading water on both sides of the 1.1600 level, unable to take advantage of a weaker US dollar. The sterling is the best performer among its main peers. It rallied on Friday to break above 1.3750, reaching 1.3775 for the first time since mid-September. On the flip side, JPY has been the worst performer. The USD/JPY pair surged over 0.5% during the day, and is now trading at 114.30. Commodity-linked currencies are hovering around the familiar levels. The Loonie has settled at 1.2380 at the moment, and Aussie was last seen at 0.7418.

Gold lost most of its Thursday gains and retreated to $1767.61 per troy ounce. Crude oil prices extend further north to fresh highs. WTI is trading at $82.10 as of writing, and Brent once breached the $85.00 price level during the early European session, and has now settled at around $84.70.

Technical Analysis

GBPJPY (4-Hour Chart)

The GBP/JPY cross continued scaling higher through the first half of the European session and once surged to its highest level since June 2016. Bulls are now looking to build on the momentum further beyond the 157.00 round-figure mark.

The momentum took along some short-term trading stops placed near the previous yearly tops, around the 156.00 mark. This seemed to have prompted aggressive short-covering and further contributed to the strong bid surrounding the GBP/JPY cross. With the latest leg up, the cross has now rallied nearly 800 pips from monthly swing lows, around the 149.20 area.

Meanwhile, technical indicators on short-term charts are already flashing overbought conditions and warrant some caution for bullish traders. Hence, it will now be interesting to see if the GBP/JPY cross continues with its positive move or bulls opt to take some profits off the table heading into the weekend.

Resistance: 160.00, 163.90(July 2016 top)

Support: 156.08, 153.50, 149.22

EURUSD (4-hour Chart)

The Euro keeps treading water on both sides of the 1.16 level, unable to take advantage of a weaker U.S. dollar. The common currency bounced up from year-to-date lows at 1.152 earlier this week but is missing a follow-through to post a significant recovery, and is still hesitating between 1.158 and 1.162 for the second day in a row. The U.S. Treasury yields rally, another source of strength for the U.S. dollar, has lost steam this week.

On the technical side, the RSI index is floating a flat movement in the day market and sitting at 57 figures, suggesting slightly bullish movement in short term. On the moving average aspect, the 15-long indicator has turned its slope positive, and the 60-long became a flat movement after the day market. Moreover, two moving average indicators displayed the golden cross in the day market.

In light of two critical technical indicators giving the Euro a positive signal. The one thing left is also the most important obstacle for upside traction: the 1.16 threshold. If the Euro can penetrate the 1.16 solidly, then we expect it will head to a higher stage.

Resistance: 1.161, 1.166, 1.1675, 1.171

Support: 1.153, 1.15

USDCAD (4 Hour Chart)

Loonie is advanced during the New York session, up 0.19%, and is trading at 1.2393 at the time of writing. Upbeat market sentiment has surrounded the market portrayed by U.S. equity indexes rising between 0.17% and 0.92%. WTI, the U.S. benchmark for crude oil, which significantly influences the Canadian dollar, has risen 0.61%, and is trading at $81.42. However, it has failed to lift the CAD. On Friday, BOC Governor Tim Macklem warned that the faster pace of price increases may persist longer than expected, and may slow the pace of Canada’s economic recovery, as global supply-chain issues weigh on the domestic economy.

From a technical perspective, the RSI indicator has rebound from over sought territory to 35 figures, still suggesting bearish momentum in short term. On the moving average indicator, the 15- and 60-long indicators still retain downside movement.

Since the Loonie has broken through a critical support level at around 1.24, we expect that the next pivotal support level will be 1.23. On the upside, the psychological level at 1.25 is still a pivotal resistance for the short-term, with 1.256 following.

Resistance: 1.2425, 1.25, 1.256

Support: 1.23

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The International Energy Agency said that record-breaking natural gas prices would boost…

The International Energy Agency said that record-breaking natural gas prices would boost demand for oil

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Market Focus

The U.S. equity market enjoyed gains on broad-based indices on Thursday’s trading. The S&P 500 gained 1.7% to close at 4438.26, the DJIA gained 1.6% to close at 34912.56, and the Nasdaq gained 1.7% to close at 14823.43. Stocks were boosted by healthy corporate earnings and better-than-anticipated economic data. Goldman Sachs, BB&T, and PNC Financial Services Group will release their earnings on the 15th. Morgan Stanley topped expectations for Q3 and beat earnings estimates. Furthermore, Morgan Stanley reported a 25% jump in net income year over year, despite a slowdown in fixed-income trading revenue.

The U.S 10-year Treasury yield continues to decline, and the benchmark is currently sitting at 1.519, down 1.94% from the previous trading day.

The U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data for the week of October 9th dropped to a fresh pandemic low of 293,000, the lowest in 19 months. Importantly, labour demand seems to be on the rise as more people are coming off state unemployment rolls.

The Brent Crude spiked above $80 a barrel and is currently settling at $84.31 per barrel. Meanwhile, the WTI has also broken the $80 barrier to settle at $81.67 per barrel.

Main Pairs Movement

As Treasury yields held at the lower end of the weekly range, the Dollar remained weak. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury notes bottomed at 1.507%, ending the day nearby. The Greenback managed to post a modest intraday advance against the JPY, but lost to most of its major rivals.

Upbeat US data provided additional support to the market’s mood. The September Producer Price Index was up 0.5% MoM and 8.6% YoY, higher than the August readings though below the market’s expectations. Initial Jobless Claims for the week of October 8 printed at 293k, much better than the expected 319k.

EUR/USD lost the 1.1600 threshold, ending the day a few pips below the level. GBP/USD settled at 1.3670, while commodity-linked currencies were the best performers. AUD/USD regained the 0.7400 mark, while USD/CAD fell to 1.2355, a fresh low since early July.

Crude oil prices are up. The International Energy Agency said that record-breaking natural gas prices would boost demand for oil, although top oil producer Saudi Arabia dismissed calls for additional OPEC+ supply. WTI settled at $81.40 a barrel, while Brent traded over $84.00. Gold flirted with $1,800 per ounce and is hovering below that level at the moment.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY (4-hour Chart)

The US Dollar’s bullish attempts seen during the early US trading session has challenged resistance again at the 113.70 area, although the pair retreated to the mid-range of 113.00. The USD remains strong against a weaker yen, trading right below three-year highs at 113.80 following a 4% rally over the last four weeks.

The Japanese yen is trading lower against its main peers with positive market sentiment hurting safe-havens in favour of riskier assets. The world’s major stock indexes are posting significant gains on Thursday, as concerns about surging inflation and supply chain bottlenecks have taken a backseat.

Looking at the bigger picture, the pair remains steady near recent highs, and a further rally is anticipated, even though overbought shorter-term conditions could lead to a couple of days of consolidation first. The next resistance is at 114.02, and the strength of the USD is deemed intact as long as it does not drop below 112.00.

Resistance: 114.02, 114.55

Support: 112.57, 112.00, 109.15

EURUSD (4-hour Chart)

The Euro retreated from its daily high and lost the 1.16 threshold, ending the day a few pips below the level, and is trading at 1.1588, 0.04% down as of writing. Earlier in the Asian session, the currency rose to a fresh weekly high of 1.1624. Upbeat U.S. data provided additional support to the market’s mood. The September Producer Price Index is up 0.5% MoM and 8.6% YoY, higher than the Aug readings although below the market’s expectations, while Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended Oct 8 printed at 293K, a number that’s much better than expected.

On the technical side, the RSI index has reversed from a daily high near the overbought threshold, suggesting a slightly bullish movement in short term. For moving averages, the 15-long indicator has turned its slope to positive, and the 60-long has become a flat movement after the day market.

All in all, both critical indicators are suggesting that the Euro could be heading towards upward momentum. Moreover, if the 15-and 60-long MA indicators could hit the gold cross, it would provide a profound level of guidance. However, we foresee 1.16 thereabout being the main resistance as the neckline of a W pattern. If the Euro can penetrate immediate resistance cleanly, then expect it to head to a higher stage.

Resistance: 1.161, 1.166, 1.1675, 1.171

Support: 1.153, 1.15

USDCAD (4 Hour Chart)

The Loonie is trading at 1.237, down over 0.57% after falling from a high of 1.2445 to a low of 1.2354 on Thursday. The Loonie has strengthened to its highest level in more than three months against its U.S. counterpart, as the energy crisis underpins the nation’s biggest export industry. Oil prices followed upward traction as the International Energy Agency said that record natural gas prices would boost oil demand, while top oil producer Saudi Arabia dismissed calls for additional OPEC+ supply. Meanwhile, WTI is sitting at $ 81.43 per barrel as of writing. Gold flirted with $1800, ending the day just below the level.

From a technical perspective, the RSI indicator fell into oversold territory and is sitting at 25, suggesting bearish momentum in the short term. On the moving average indicator, the 15- and 60-long indicators still retain downside movement.

Since the Loonie broke through a critical level of support at 1.24, we expect the next pivotal support level will be 1.23. On the upside, the psychological level of 1.25 is still a pivotal resistance for the short-term, following 1.256.

Resistance: 1.2425, 1.25, 1.256

Support: 1.23

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