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20201124
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Crude oil continues to gain momentum, extending to $43, on coronavirus vaccine optimism

Market Focus U.S. stocks and indices rose as investors regained hope on a reopening of economic activity after AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford said their Covid-19 vaccines were up to 70% effective. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P500 both pushed higher 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively. Data showed that U.S. business in November was in the fastest pace since …

Market Focus

U.S. stocks and indices rose as investors regained hope on a reopening of economic activity after AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford said their Covid-19 vaccines were up to 70% effective. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P500 both pushed higher 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively. Data showed that U.S. business in November was in the fastest pace since 2015, helping fuel the rotation into companies that will benefit from a return to normal economic activity. The news from vaccine successes lately have added to a risk on mood in markets; investors have started expecting an end of lockdowns and restrictions.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has confirmed that a nationwide lockdown will be ended on the 2nd of December, which is next week. With more and more positive vaccine news, Johnson also announced that U.K. will return to a “tiered system” of restrictions, with differing degree of rules, depending on cases of pandemic infections. At the same time, after the second lockdown in early November, it has shown that coronavirus case numbers are getting stabilized. Besides vaccines and a stability of coronavirus cases, the U.K. government is also under pressure to bring its domestic business back to normal sooner, given the serious damage to the economy.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs

The Pound Sterling benefits from upside momentum against major currencies after AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford reported some successful results from their vaccines; even though the average effective rate is around 70%, lower than other competitors, it still brought positive input to the U.K. In the meantime, the Pound Sterling also benefits from optimism around Brexit and domestic lockdown. According to the media, the agreement between the U.K. and EU is so far 95% done, boosting the Pound Sterling.

Gold drops to multi- month lows below $1,840 as the dollar. As the data published by the IHS revealed that the private sector’s business activity in the U.S. expanded at an impressive pace in the month of November; in the meantime, the Manufacturing and Services PMI rises to 56.7 and 57.7, respectively, both are better than the estimations. With the renewed dollar index strength and the risk- on market environment, they both hurt the bulls of Gold.

Crude oil continues to gain momentum, extending to $43, on coronavirus vaccine optimism. After Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZeneca announced positive results on its coronavirus vaccines, investors start being optimistic on the surge of economic activity, expecting to lift the demand of crude oil. Meanwhile, investors are optimistic about OPEC agreeing on a three- month extension to output cuts.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4 Hour Chart)

Cable has reached a two month high to 1.3392, currently trading at 1.3310 as of writing. Despite of hitting the upper band of Bollinger Band in the 4- hour chart, it continues to sustain its bullish momentum as it moves beyond the support level of 1.3275. Additionally, Cable is steadily located above the mean and the 50 Simple Moving Average, suggesting an upside movement. The RSI is on the edge of neutral condition, remaining momentum to grow. The Support awaits at 1.3275, followed by 1.3265, 1.3228, and 1.3112; the resistance awaits at 1.3392.

Resistance: 1.3392

Support: 1.3275, 1.3265, 1.3228, 1.3112

NZDUSD (4 Hour Chart)

The NZDUSD pair is trading at 0.6919 as of writing today. From the 4 hour time frame, NZDUSD has broken downward through the mean of Bollinger Band and the upward trend, suggesting a breakpoint of the bullish channel. The RSI provides a sign of imcompletion of a bearish movement. It is expected to see the price to test and break below the support at 0.6885. As of now, a long position is not preferable; it is suggested to examine if the pair can eventually break the level of 0.6885, the support and the lower band of Bollinger Band. If it fails to break through, a pull back will be due.

Resistance: 0.6939

Support: 0.6885, 0.6822, 0.6695

GOLD (Daily Chart)

Gold price has broken the support level at $1,862, diving to 4- month low at $1,839. Gold has accelerated its downside pressure from last week amid a positive market sentiment after the news of serveral vaccine successes. As of now, Gold locates below the 3- month support pivot at $1,862 and just penetrates the 8- month trend line; It is expected to see the downward momentum to continue lower towards $1,800 as long as the price is below $1,900.

Resistance: 1,974.70, 1,911.24, 1,862.04

Support: 1,754.55, 1,682.04

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20201123
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Aussie and Kiwi continue perform strong among their G-10 peers as market sentiment improves, up 0.19% and 0.2% respectively

Market Focus US equities slipped as among a dispute between the White House and Federal Reserve over emergency lending programs. The disagreement escalated on Thursday when Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin released a letter to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell demanding the return of government funding from the monetary authority, so it can utilize that capital in extreme market conditions. Investors worry …

Market Focus

US equities slipped as among a dispute between the White House and Federal Reserve over emergency lending programs. The disagreement escalated on Thursday when Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin released a letter to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell demanding the return of government funding from the monetary authority, so it can utilize that capital in extreme market conditions. Investors worry that a disunity government will hamper the current slowly recovering economy, and could further delay the delivery of an essential stimulus package. Mnuchin explains his motive was not to put the Treasury against the Fed, but “since the market have recovered significantly, companies don’t need more loans, and instead require more grant money, which requires actions from Congress.” Meanwhile, the Fed issued a statement urging that the full suite of measures be maintained into 2021. President of the Fed Bank of Atlanta commented on Treasury’s statement, saying “there’s so much uncertainty still out there, it is prudent to keep those things open so that when people, if they do have stress, they can draw open it.” US Chamer of Commerce also “urge these programs be extended for the foreseeable future and call on Congress to pass additional pandemic relief targeted at the American business, workers and industries that continue to suffer.”

Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE will request emergency authorization of coronavirus vaccine on Friday. However, it could take at least three weeks for a US Food and Drug Administration decision as trial data is probed by government agency and outside advisers.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs

Cable climbed 0.12% on Friday to 1.328. The pound somehow found refreshed demand despite negative development on Brexit. The EU accused UK hasn’t been putting up enough effort to overcome the main obstacles to the post-Brexit deal as three of the bloc’s leaders called for contingency plans to be stepped up in case there is no agreement.

Safe-haven Japanese Yen and Swiss Fran were on the defensive during Friday trading session, both down around 0.1% against the US dollar. USDJPY finally managed to find some ground after slipping 1.7% in the past six business days.

Aussie and Kiwi continue perform strong among their G-10 peers as market sentiment improves, up 0.19% and 0.2% respectively. The two antipodeans now turns to economic recovery following the pandemic, while the North America and European nations still struggle with swelling infection cases.

Gold rallied 0.24% after Steven Mnuchin said his agency and the Fed have enough funds to continue to support the economy. He also mentioned the stimulus negotiation will resume, and this time GOP will be approaching Democratic differently. Meanwhile, Gold ETF holdings are at the lowest in more than two months.

Technical Analysis

EURJPY (Daily Chart)

EURJPY is bouncing upon previous trendline, where it meets horizontal support of 123. The support line was the former neck-line of a double top, which turned into resistance after a downside breakout. The current retracement could also be viewed as confirmation of a supportive trendline. If it can manage to shrug off the selling bias, upside momentum will be strong, critical resistance to look out for would be 125 and 126.4. Odds for a move lower remain well on the cards with the near support at September’s lows of 122, followed by 120.7.

Resistance: 125, 126.4

Support: 123, 122, 120.7

NZDUSD (Weekly Chart)

Kiwi continues to capitalize its gain on the last trading day of the week. The general picture remains bullish on the weekly chart as it surpassed multi-year highs above 0.692. The steep ascending wedge will likely escort price toward 0.7 before any major retracements could take place. Any surge beyond 0.7 will be skeptical as RSI will likely run into overbought region, which is a very rare occasion on the weekly chart. We expect it to retreat to test 0.692 support after hitting 0.7 hurdle given it is a psychological barrier and the past three weeks’ rally seem to run ahead of itself. MACD also support a bearish trend.

Resistance: 0.7, 0.721

Support: 0.692, 0.676, 0.654

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold rebounded on 1861 support, the fifth time that price failed to pass through this level. Price seems to cling to 1861 more frequently than before, which could be a sign that bidders are gradually losing the wrestle. The descending trendline will soon meet the horizontal support line, and market will give a clear direction by then. A breakout from lower will be favorable given the current picture. If breached, then price would pull back further towards 1765. To the upside, bidders are having difficult time bypassing 1930 hurdle, and will likely persist till the end of 2020.

Resistance: 1930, 1992

Support: 1861, 1839, 1765

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20201120
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Turkish Lira has posted a big surge today of more than 2% against the U.S. dollar

Market Focus U.S. stocks markets fluctuated as investors weighed the impact on tougher restriction on economic growth, caused by the surge of coronavirus. The S&P 500 swung between small losses and gains, retreating from its record high in the beginning of this week. U.S. jobless claims filings also hold up the markets; the pace of workers filing for unemployment claims …

Market Focus

U.S. stocks markets fluctuated as investors weighed the impact on tougher restriction on economic growth, caused by the surge of coronavirus. The S&P 500 swung between small losses and gains, retreating from its record high in the beginning of this week. U.S. jobless claims filings also hold up the markets; the pace of workers filing for unemployment claims were higher than the expectation from Wall Street; at the same time, jobless claims of 742,000 were also higher than that of 710,000 estimates.

G-20 nations have decided to deploy an unprecedented $11 trillion USD for the purpose of accelerating a sustainable economic recovery from the impact of coronavirus. Along with the financial support, G-20 countries also have come with an agreement on a common framework for restructuring government debt, signifying the intensification of an effort to help the world’s poorest countries. With this framework, countries with growing debt problems will have an offer to reschedule or reduce debt deemed to be unsustainable.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs

Turkish Lira has posted a big surge today of more than 2% against the U.S. dollar as Turkey’s Central Bank has decided to increase its one- week repo rate, the bank’s policy rate, from 10.25% to 15% for the purpose of tightening its monetary policy to ensure price stability. At the same time, the Turkey’s Central Bank aimed for a strong monetary policy to eliminate risks to the potential inflation.

Gold has bounced back after testing $1,850 support level. After the U.S. reported a death of 250,000, it has offset investors’ optimism on the promising trial results of some coronavirus vaccines. In the meantime, with more and more lockdown measures are implemented, mindsets from investors have reactivated concerns about the economic consequences, dampened the risk appetite.

Last month, the Euro dollar was the most used and prevalent currency for global payments, which is the first time since the year of 2013. The U.S. dollar’s usage fell approximately 4.6% from December to 37.64% of transactions last month. From the trading perspective, a pandemic- induced recession reduced the share of international payments in dollar; the dollar has weakened more than 11% from its March peak.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4 Hour Chart)

EURUSD regains bullish momentum after falling in the first half of Thursday trading session. The pair is trading at 1.1869 as of writing. After reaching the lower band of Bollinger band and the support level of 1.1818, the EURUSD pair rebounds and turns into the positive terrotory. As of now, it is expected to see the pair continues to sustain its bulls along with the support from the 50 Simple Moving Average while the pair has broken through the mean of Bollinger band, suggesting a positive movement. The resistance awaits at 1.1890 while the support awaits at 1.1818, followed by 1.1757 and 1.1629.

Resistance: 1.1890

Support: 1.1818, 1.1757, 1.1629

GBPUSD (4 Hour Chart)

The Pound Sterling regains momentum against the U.S. dollar today as of writing. The currency pair failed to challenge the mean of Bollinger Band and the support of 1.3228 from early session. Currently, the pair has turned into the bullish momentum along with the support from the 20 Simple Moving Average. Meanwhile, both MACD indicator and RSI are still in a neutral position, suggesting a continuously sustainable momentum. Thus, so far, in the 4-hour chart, the technical picture predicts the continued strengthening of the Pound Sterling.

Resistance: 1.3275, 1.3265

Support: 1.3228, 1.3112, 1.3006, 1.2898

NZDUSD (4 Hour Chart)

The NZDUSD pair is currently trading at 0.6922. In the 4- hour chart, the pair is still in the positive momentum; however, it is now providing the first warning reversal signal. The NZDUSD is showing bearish divergence from the RSI indicator. At the same time, the pair gradually reaches the upper band of Bollinger Band, signifying a pullback. In addition, if the support level of 0.6903 fails to sustain, it is expected to see a bullish movement again; otherwise, it is expected to see a selling pressure.

Resistance: 0. 6939

Support: 0.6903, 0.6801, 0.6725, 0.6671

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20201119
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Gold price dropped after Pfizer Inc. announced plans to file to an emergency authorization, gold ETF holdings dropped about 40 tons

Market Focus US equities edged higher as investors are optimistic that the vaccine breakthrough will put an end to the pandemic. Pfizer said a final analysis of clinical-trial data showed its COVID-19 vaccine was 95% effective, and the company plans a filing with the Food and Drug Administration by Friday. Boeing Co. climbed as the Federal Aviation Administration ruled that …

Market Focus

US equities edged higher as investors are optimistic that the vaccine breakthrough will put an end to the pandemic. Pfizer said a final analysis of clinical-trial data showed its COVID-19 vaccine was 95% effective, and the company plans a filing with the Food and Drug Administration by Friday. Boeing Co. climbed as the Federal Aviation Administration ruled that 737 Max will be cleared to fly after extensive fixes. Tesla Inc. extended their surge on Wednesday, rising as much as 9.8% to $485, the stock jumped 8.2% Tuesday after it was selected for admission to the S&P 500 Index.

ECB President Christine Lagarde is not so optimistic on the coronavirus vaccine, and it should not disrupt the monetary authority’s plan to add more stimulus. Lagarde said in an interview at Bloomberg’s New Economy Forum on Tuesday that the central bank is focused on stopping the current economic slump from worsening, and that it always assumed a medical solution would be available in 2021. They signaled there will be another round of bond-buying and long-term bank loans.

Japan raises its virus alert to the highest level and is considering early closures of stores. In Europe, France surpassed 2 million infections, while Italy reported the most virus deaths in seven months.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs

Gold price dropped after Pfizer Inc. announced plans to file to an emergency authorization. Gold ETF holdings dropped about 40 tons of yellow metal since the news, which signals a restore of investors’ confidence. Price is poised to fall further as market expects more actions will be taken either from the US government or the Fed to help economies.

The safe-haven Yen advanced against its G-10 peers as Tokyo confirmed a daily record of coronavirus infection. Focus shifts back to economic fundamentals from vaccine after comments by Fed Powell on Tuesday and weaker US retail sales figure prompt doubts about the pace of recovery. USDJPY has been pushed back to sub-104 level, meanwhile the US Dollar Index declined 0.03% to 92.4.

USDCAD slumped 0.2% on Wednesday amid a goodish pickup in crude oil prices underpinned the commodity linked currency. A combination of OPEC+ production cut pause and Pfizer vaccine filing contributed to WTI crude oil raise of 0.46%, it is one step closer to regaining $42 mark.

Cryptocurrency mania continues, price once reached 18,480 during Wednesday’s session. It has been three years since Bitcoin surges beyond $18,000.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

Euro-dollar snapped its four consecutive win, and is crurently struggling find a direction around 1.186. The pair failed to pass 61.8% Fibonacci, and could possibily undergoing the formation of a double-top. If price continues to decline within the next few days, then it would essentially confirm the formation of double-top, which usually signals the pair is vunlerable to further downside. Previous support of 1.176, also marks the neckline of the double-top, would be the pivot line to decide whether it will plunge to 1.16 or rebound back to 1.192. MACD on the daily chart remains bullish.

Resistance: 1.192, 1.2

Support: 1.176, 1.17, 1.161

USDCAD (Daily Chart)

USDCAD rebounded modestly after failing to penetrate the long standing 1.296 horizontal support. However, the bounce seems to be short-lived. Reviving crude oil price bolsters the commodity dependent currency, thus pressing down on the USDCAD pair. With DMA50 hovers above and a four-month downward trendline, it is doubtful that USDCAD could pull back to 1.34 in the medium term. That being said, the possibility of another visit of 1.296 is high; if breached, then the bears will be probing into territories not seen since October 2018.

Resistance: 1.324, 1.338, 1.369

Support: 1.296, 1.29

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold retreats further south upon hitting the descending trendline highlighted in red, it closed the day 0.43% lower. Large players continues to dump the value-preserving metal and seek better return investment somewhere else. With two of the largest Gold ETF reduce holdings, Gold price is poised to drop further. That being said, it is running into previous buying zone between 1861 and 1839, which helped to defend sellers’ attach in the past three months. If breached, then price would pull back further towards 1765. To the upside, bidders are having difficult time bypassing 1930 hurdle, and will likely persist till the end of 2020.

Resistance: 1930, 1992

Support: 1861, 1839, 1765

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