アカデミー

金融市場の最新動向と商品の今後のトレンドをすばやく理解します。
Pacific Union市場のすべてのレポート。

購入と販売を学びますか?トレーディングアカデミーで詳細を見る

始めましょう

マーケットアヘッド

20201130
Share
FacebookTwitterLinkedInWeChatShare

The Pound Sterling is the worst performing G10 currency, down almost 0.4% against the dollar today

Market Focus U.S. stocks market turns green and climbs back to records in thin post- holiday trading as investors assess more information on pandemic; at the same time, the U.S. oil retreats amid rising tensions among OPEC members. Adding to this, global stocks are on track for the best month on record, overall up 13%, lifting valuations to near the …

Market Focus

U.S. stocks market turns green and climbs back to records in thin post- holiday trading as investors assess more information on pandemic; at the same time, the U.S. oil retreats amid rising tensions among OPEC members. Adding to this, global stocks are on track for the best month on record, overall up 13%, lifting valuations to near the highest in 20 years; nevertheless, sentiment remains fragile as the pandemic still goes on in several regions, including Europe and the U.S.. As of now, investors are pinning their hopes on a swift rollout of an effective vaccine.

Brexit talk will start once again in London on this Saturday amid warnings from both European officials and British officials of big disagreements that could possibly sink any deal. The next few days will be critical and crucial as both sides need to step up the pace. Brexit talk almost halts in recent days after one of the European Union negotiating team got tested positive for coronavirus, forcing the discussions to be suspended.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs

Gold price accelerated heir downtrend from last week highs near $1,900, hitting its lowest prices in nearly five months, below $1,800. Gold price continues to suffer on a risk- on market as investors are optimistic about the promising results of the coronavirus vaccines and there are positive sentiment about the new elected President Joe Biden confirmed his victory. Gold continues to confront downside pressure while global market seems to be optimistic and hopes for a better economy, boosting equities higher in detriment of gold.

The Pound Sterling dropped to the fresh lows of the day although no new news was driving the move. The possible driver is Brexit pessimism. Since there has been no indication today that the U.K. and the EU have moved any closer to a deal this week, it is likely to be behind the downside. The Pound Sterling is the worst performing G10 currency, down almost 0.4% against the dollar today.

Technical Analysis

NZDUSD (4 Hour Chart)

NZDUSD climbed to 0.7030 boosted by a weaker dollar, reaching the highest level since 2018. In the 4 hour chart, the pair remains positive and bullish even though the RSI implies overbought levels of 60, but no signs of a correction area seen. A pullback under 0.7014 would favor a consolidation and a correction; the resistance might be seen at 0.7050 while supports might be seen at 0.6939 and 0.6778.

Resistance: 0.7050

Support: 0.6939, 0.6778

GBPUSD (4 Hour Chart)

The Pound Sterling is dipping against the U.S. dollar below the yellow bullish ascending line. The breakdown is not yet to be confimed, but the 2-week up side momentum on the 4 hour chart has been fading. The GBPUSD pair is currently reaching the lower band of Bollinger Band, suggesing a pullback; however, the direction for the pair is still unclear because two major indicators, the RSI and MACD still do not imply oversold condition. Therefore, it is too soon to determine whether the pair is going to be bullish or bearish as of writing. Support awaits at 1.3300, followed by 1.3222; Resistance awaits at 1.3399.

Resistance: 1.3399

Support: 1.3300, 1.3222

EURUSD (4 Hour Chart)

The EURUSD pair continues to behave positive, benefitting from upside momentum on the 4-hour chart. As of now, it seems that the pair will continue its bullish move as the RSI is below 70th mark and the MACD is still flat, which are outside of overbought conditions. Meanwhile, the EURUSD pair is also holding up above the 50 Simple Moving Average. Resistance awaits at 1.1959, which is the peak price as of writing; support awaits at 1.1921, followed by 1.1890 and 1.1879.

Resistance: 1.1959

Support: 1.1921, 1.1890, 1879

FacebookTwitterLinkedInWeChatShare
荷造りする
20201127
Share
FacebookTwitterLinkedInWeChatShare

WTI crude oil retreated nearly 2% amid limited market liquidity

Market Focus AstraSeneca Plc is likely to run global trial to test the efficacy of the freshly developed COVID-19 vaccine. The company will expand trial field outside of U.S. to evaluate a lower dosage that performed better than a full amount in Astra’s studies. This extra test should not delay regulatory approvals, said CEO Pascal Soriot. OPEC’s president said the …

Market Focus

AstraSeneca Plc is likely to run global trial to test the efficacy of the freshly developed COVID-19 vaccine. The company will expand trial field outside of U.S. to evaluate a lower dosage that performed better than a full amount in Astra’s studies. This extra test should not delay regulatory approvals, said CEO Pascal Soriot.

OPEC’s president said the group must remain cautious as crude oil supply will overshoot if members decide to raise production next week. The OPEC+ coalition will meet on Monday and Tuesday to discuss whether they should proceed with a production increase of 1.9 barrels a day scheduled for January.

Key takeaways from Federal Reserve’s October meeting minutes:

  • The board will update its guidance on asset purchase program in December.
  • Plans to taper asset purchases before it would consider raising interest rate.
  • Labor market still faces challenge with a rise in permanent layoffs.
  • Few state and local governments are struggling without additional fiscal aid from the White House.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs

Forex market was quiet as US celebrates Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. WTI crude oil retreated nearly 2% amid limited market liquidity. Meanwhile, safe-haven Yen, Franc, and Gold were up marginally.

Technical Analysis

NZDUSD (Daily Chart)

Kiwi broke the asecending tunnel from the upside, and went on a rampage afterward, gaining 3.4% since Nov 9th. The rally will likely resume until price runs into 76.4% Fibonacci of 0.707, then a pull back is expected. The pair can either establish a consolidation zone or retrace back to previous trendline. That being said, price level between 0.6887 and 0.6943 seems to be a good range for short period consolidation. Further south, if trendline could ward off any significant retreat, then bullish trend is proven to be sustainable. MACD also bolsters a bullish run.

Resistance:0.7066, 0.7177

Support: 0.6887, 0.6943, 0.6762

EURUSD (Daily Chart)

Euro-dollar is facing critical hurdle of 1.192, which were rejected twice in the past three months. Holiday trading would be delusive as liquidity dries out on Thursday and Friday. The pair will pull back to 61.8% Fibonacci of 1.186 before continuing to march north, the ultimate goal will be 1.2 at year-end, any surges beyond 1.2 is skeptical. On the downside, the pair will plunge back to 1.1765 if ECB conveys a more dovish statement than market expectation. MACD on the daily chart remains bullish.

Resistance: 1.192, 1.2

Support: 1.186, 1.1765, 1.17

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

After two consecutive dives, gold is starting to retreat toward previous support of 1838. The current retracement will be supportive to near future bearish run if 1838 is proven to be a stern resistance. In case it manages to gather enough strengths to regain 1838, then the red descending trendline will likely be challenge once again. A huge plummet to the downside is unlikely since the existing anti-Gold headlines are priced in, that being said, we expect the value of yellow metal to gradually deteriorate. MACD on the daily chart continues to favor sellers.

Resistance: 1838, 1861, 1930

Support: 1765, 1691, 1600

FacebookTwitterLinkedInWeChatShare
荷造りする
20201126
Share
FacebookTwitterLinkedInWeChatShare

After the Dow Jones surged to the record high above 30,000, today all three major indices retreated and fell back into negative territories

Market Focus U.S. stocks paused from records as investors eyed on a batch of economic data that suggested a potential slowdown in economic growth, resulting in higher treasuries. After the Dow Jones surged to the record high above 30,000, today all three major indices retreated and fell back into negative territories. Investors appeared to be more restrained after a lower- …

Market Focus

U.S. stocks paused from records as investors eyed on a batch of economic data that suggested a potential slowdown in economic growth, resulting in higher treasuries. After the Dow Jones surged to the record high above 30,000, today all three major indices retreated and fell back into negative territories. Investors appeared to be more restrained after a lower- than- expected U.S. jobless claims, and be taking a breather ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday on Thursday, leading to a relatively quiet market today.

Today, the U.K. announced its largest borrowing level ever, the highest since World War II, as the pandemic is forecast to cause the largest plunge. The U.K. economy is forecast to contract by 11.3% this year, followed by 5.5% and 6.6%. The economy has been hit harder by the pandemic than those of many rich nations. More than 56,000 people have died from the pandemic, the highest death toll in Euro zone. The U.K. is also confronting the risk of a trade shock within 6 weeks, the time frame when post- Brexit transition deal is due. As of now, no new trade agreement has been yet reached with the European Union.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs

The Sterling Pound rallies in recent trades against major currencies as the London fix approaches, even though a lack of progress in Brexit talk. According to the President of the European Commission, Von Der Leyen, she has given a statement that she “can’t say if there will be a deal or not.” Nonetheless, the lack of progress towards Brexit seems to do little on denting sentiment, the Sterling Pound. Conversely, the Sterling Pound’s price action seems to be more benefitting from London Fix flows, volumes are expected to be thin in the future.

Today, gold takes a breath from the bearish momentum on Monday and Tuesday by the combination of vaccine news from AstraZeneca and the news that former Fed Chair Janet Yellen has been picked as Treasury Secretary. However, gold is still under downside pressure because of weak inflation pressures, suggested by the Federal Reserve’s inflation measure of 1.4%, down from September’s annual rise of 1.6%. That being said, weak inflation pressures give the Fed a significant room to launch new stimulus plan, affecting little to Gold’s upside movement.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (4 Hour Chart)

GBPUSD continues to trade along the ascending trend line, above 1.3300 price level. As the pair almost reaches the upper bound of Bollinger Band, further bullish advancement is expected to be supressed and due to a pullback; With the RSI’s level of 62, the pair looks overbought. Initial bearish target would be located at 1.3340 and 1.3389. The price 1.3340 would act as a critical price zone; if the pair successfully penetrates 1.3340, then the bearish momentum is expected to continue. Conversely, it it fails to do so, then the bullish momentum would likely be offered.

Resistance:1.3391

Support: 1.3300, 1.3222, 1.3059

EURUSD (4 Hour Chart)

After breaking 1.1866 price zone, EURUSD’s short- term momentum is to the upside. EURUSD eyes on the resistance at 1.1921. The pair is trading above the 20 Simple Moving Average, thus suggesting a postive position. Support awaits at 1.1890, followed by 1.1818 and 1.1757; resistance awaits at 1.1921. The current bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.1921 is supposed to be considered fas a sign of bears.

Resistance: 1.1921

Support: 1.1890, 1.1818, 1.1757

NZDUSD (4 Hour Chart)

NZDUSD sustains its bullish move despite of reaching the upper band of Bollinger band. The MACD is relatively flattening above its rising red line while the RSI is merely above the 70th mark, both suggesting the incompletoion of the bullish direction. Continuing to rise, NZDUSD is heading to test its resistance level at 0.7014 once again within the trading session. If it eventually fails to penetrate, then it would consolidate in the price zone at 0.7014 and 0.6964. To sum up, NZDUSD’s bullish picture remains robust and solid above the 50 Simple Moving Average, continuing its positive movement in the short- term.

Resistance: 0.7014

Support: 0.6939, 0.6903, 0.6885

FacebookTwitterLinkedInWeChatShare
荷造りする
20201125
Share
FacebookTwitterLinkedInWeChatShare

The previously depressed black gold rallied in the wake of positive vaccine development and easing US political uncertainty

Market Focus US equity market rallied towards records high as Trump administration is making federal resources available to Joe Biden for his transition into office. The Dow Jones surpassed 30,000 points for the first time in history, with Boeing Co. led the gain by raising 5%. The move would officially mark the defeat of President Donald Trump in 2020 Election, …

Market Focus

US equity market rallied towards records high as Trump administration is making federal resources available to Joe Biden for his transition into office. The Dow Jones surpassed 30,000 points for the first time in history, with Boeing Co. led the gain by raising 5%. The move would officially mark the defeat of President Donald Trump in 2020 Election, and this partially remove political uncertainty in the US. Market also look forward to Biden’s plan to nominate former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to lead the Treasury Department. She recently said the recovery will be uneven and slow if the Congress does not step up to fight unemployment and keep small businesses afloat. More importantly, investors also foreshadow a closer cooperation between Federal Reserve and the Treasury under Yellen’s appointment, unlike the recent friction that we saw between Fed’s Powell and Treasury’s Mnuchin.

Crypto mania resumes on Tuesday, Bitcoin climbed past $19,000, a price not seen since December 2017. The most popular digital currency skyrocketed over 160%, easy money from unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus helped to push price towards $20,000.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs

Euro-dollar resumed its advance on Tuesday, gained 0.43% near closing hours. The shared currency cheered upbeat third quarter German GDP, printed 8.5% compared to expectation of 8.2%. The key economic index declined 9.7% in the second quarter of 2020, and today’s data release showed a significant recovery in Germany economic activities. Meanwhile, the Cable followed a similar trajectory as Euro-dollar, up 0.27%. The dollar tracking index fell 0.2% to 92.3, giving back all of its gain from Monday. Demand for safe-haven gold continues to deteriorate, price plunged 1.65% to $1808, the lowest since July.

WTI crude futures ramped up 4.13%, hitting $44.8 a barrel for the first time since March. The previously depressed black gold rallied in the wake of positive vaccine development and easing US political uncertainty. The Canadian dollar, which is heavily linked to crude oil, takes on the US greenback amid oil recovery, as a result Lonnie slipped 0.68%.

The commodity currency pairs, Aussie and Kiwi, were among the top performers in the G-10 group, up 1.03% and 0.78% respectively. Speculators celebrate the end of US Election uncertainty, and attention now turns to risky currencies. Kiwi passed 0.7 for the first time in two years, as market completely ruled out the possibility of negative interest rate in New Zealand.

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (Daily Chart)

Cable is once again hitting the upper bound of a ascending tunnel. With the aid of previous high of 1.338, price is likely to be capped within the current tunnel within the next few days. Price were crudely rejected whenever it attempts to break the ceiling during the past two months. However, there has been a change to this pattern, recent price seems to be clinging to the ceiling , which migh suggest bidders are setting the stage for an eventual breakthrough. Before that happens, possibility of a modest retreat to 1.326 remains distinctive.

Resistance: 1.338, 1.348

Support: 1.326, 1.3

USDJPY (Daily Chart)

USDJPY struggled to find direction after rebounded 0.66% yesterday. It managed to climbed above 104 as investors are shrugging off risk-off sentiment, and attempts to stand above the descending trendline. This might be the best chance for the greenback to overturn the safe-haven Japnese Yen before the end of 2020, investors are reversing their hedge and look to secure the year-end bonus moving into December. If trendline is conquered, then it should not have much trouble passing 105.4. On the downside, support sits around 104.2, followed by 103.

Resistance: 105.4, 106.9

Support: 104.2, 103, 102.4

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold finally penetrated support zone between 1861 and 1838. In the last two months, it was consolidating between 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci level, and is poised to drop when market shifts to risk-on mode. The precious metal now eyes for 1765, however a revist to 1838 is not ruled out since market would like to confirm 1838 now serves as a ceiling to the upcoming bearish run. A huge plummet to the downside is unlikely since the existing anti-Gold headlines are priced in, that being said, we expect the value of yellow metal to gradually deteriorate. MACD on the daily chart also favors the bears.

Resistance: 1838, 1861, 1930

Support: 1765, 1691, 1600

FacebookTwitterLinkedInWeChatShare
荷造りする

あなたのスタート
パーソナライズされたトレーディング