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20201014
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The Aussie was among the worst performers against the greenback, weighed by tensions with China

Market Focus Stocks fell on speculation that recent gains have outpaced prospects for a quick end to the stalemate over fresh economic stimulus Treasuries and the dollar climbed. Banks led losses in the S&P500, with JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup Inc. sinking as investors worried that third-quarter earnings signaled just a pause in pain from soured loans. On the same …

Market Focus

Stocks fell on speculation that recent gains have outpaced prospects for a quick end to the stalemate over fresh economic stimulus Treasuries and the dollar climbed. Banks led losses in the S&P500, with JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup Inc. sinking as investors worried that third-quarter earnings signaled just a pause in pain from soured loans. On the same note, Apple Inc. slumped after Monday’s surge in big tech.

Prospects for U.S. fiscal stimulus before Election Day dimmed on Tuesday, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi demanding the Trump administration revamp its latest offer and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell pushing a smaller-scale strategy that she quickly rejected. His proposal to vote next week on just one provision appeared to stoke opposition even from President Donald Trump.

According to Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer at Penn Mutual Asset Management, “it’s been a rollercoaster rise in terms of communication from both sides. There are still going to be significant pockets of stress in the economy and a fiscal package could help bridge the gap until the U.S. get a vaccine.”

Market Wrap

Main Pairs

The greenback surged fueled by diminishing prospects for a U.S. coronavirus stimulus package before the presidential election, Wall Street’s poor performance sent investors into safety. On the other hand, USDJPY rebounds from daily lows near 105.20 on Tuesday. The bounce in the 10-year yield also collaborates with the upside. Attention is now on the U.S. inflation figures tracked by the CPI. The Aussie was among the worst performers against the greenback, weighed by tensions with China, which reportedly banned imports of Australian coal. Risk-aversion fueled the slide.

Crude oil prices rebound markedly on Tuesday and partially recover ground lost following Monday’s sell-off.

US Election

Polls

President Donald Trump’s campaign lost a bid to have election observers inside Philadelphia’s satellite voting offices. The “Seinfeld” character Newman stars in a Democratic super-PAC ad. And Democratic nominee Joe Biden is doing well in the Rust Belt, but he may win some Sun Belt states too.

There are 25 days until the election and 66 days until the Electoral College meets.

Daily Wrap

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (4H Chart)

After the Cable failed to break above the 1.3072 resistance level, GBPUSD plummeted dramatically towards the 1.2917 price zone on Tuesday, which is a price near the lowest price zone since last Friday. At the time of writing, the DXY is up about 0.53%, sitting at 93.53. The stronger greenback weighed down on the European majors, subsequently, pushed down the GBPUSD to the downside. Additionally, due to the fact that the Brexit talks are still in negotiation as the deadline is approaching, concerns over the UK economic recovery and reaching a sustainable Brexit deal further undermine the demand of GBP.

On the technical side, RSI is heading towards the 30 oversold threshold, suggesting the pair might soon enter an upward correction. However, if the Cable continues to consolidate near 1.2920 support and successfully drops below it, then the bears would take over and the next support is seen at 1.2878.

Resistance: 1.3007, 1.3072

Support: 1.2920, 1.2878, 1.2818

USDCAD (4H Chart)

Despite the rising of DXY, UDSCAD remains consolidative between the 1.3106 and 1.3151 interval, with just a slightly bullish trend driving the Loonie to the upside. Rising crude oil price may be a reason why the commodity sensitive Loonie did not loss as much in comparison with other major pairs. After crude oil’s sharp drop on Monday, WTI is up 1.87% at $40.22 at the time of writing.

Currently, the RSI has returned to the 40 zone, bouncing back from a prolonged Oversold region, and that suggests the upward correction of the Loonie pair has been priced in by the bulls. Looking ahead, the uncertainty around a new round of U.S. Covid-19 stimulus package and the price of WTI would continue to navigate the price action of the Loonie, and in the short-term, it seems like the surging WTI has a more impactful effect on the Loonie’s outlook.

Resistance: 1.3151, 1.3203, 1.3248

Support: 1.3106, 1.3043

XAUUSD (4H Chart)

The safe-haven metal plummeted significantly on Tuesday. At the time of writing, the XAUUSD is trading around $1890. The main reason for this drastic decline is the excessive demand of the greenback that led by the resurgence of investors’ risk aversion sentiment. Investors continue to worry about the absence of a U.S. coronavirus stimulus package, the lack of progress in the Brexit talks as the Euro Summit is approaching, and a possible third wave of the Covid-19 that could jeopardize the slowly recovering global economy. With all the near-term uncertainties waiting for solutions, investors are now searching refuge in the greenback.

On the technical side, with the short-term SMAVG still resting above the long-term SMAVG, and the RSI heading extensively towards the oversold threshold, we expect the Gold to find some bullish support in the near-term and remain above the 1886 supporting zone.

Resistance: 1916.52, 1929.53

Support: 1886.33, 1872.78, 1848

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20201013
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UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a new set of restrictions to keep second round of coronavirus under control

Market Focus US equity market continued to rally despite stalemate to the stimulus package likely persist. Members of the House told not to expect any action this week and many Senate Republicans rejecting the White House proposal for a deal. Trump administration has elevated the proposal budge from $1.6 trillion to $1.8 trillion, however multiple GOP senators participated in last …

Market Focus

US equity market continued to rally despite stalemate to the stimulus package likely persist. Members of the House told not to expect any action this week and many Senate Republicans rejecting the White House proposal for a deal. Trump administration has elevated the proposal budge from $1.6 trillion to $1.8 trillion, however multiple GOP senators participated in last Saturday conference call told Mnuchin and Mark Meadows that any agreement with Democrats that ends up around $2 trillion is too much. Negotiations between Pelosi and Mnuchin are expected to resume this week as they attempt to close the gap of $0.4 trillion.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a new set of restrictions to keep second round of coronavirus under control, with bars and pubs closing once again. A three-tier (medium, high, very high) system is put in place to simplify the imposition of lockdown measure. The new measure revealed the severity of virus resurgence as Johnson said “I take no pleasure whatsoever in placing restrictions on these businesses, nor do I want to stop people enjoying themselves. But we must act to save lives.”

Brexit talks are set to continue. PM Boris Johnson reiterated over the weekend that he will walk away if no deal is reached before October 15th. However, EU officials said they are optimistic Boris Johnson won’t carry out his threat to walk away from the negotiations.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs

Cable was gaining 0.14% as of writing. The worsening pandemic in UK should theoretically drove the Sterling down, however chevalier Andrew Bailey saved the day by stating the BoE isn’t ready to implement negative interest rate.

Aussie dropped 0.38% among PBOC lift reserve rule on currency forwards. The yuan ramped up 1.6% on Friday when the currency traded for the first time following National Day holidays. The decision in term hurts Australian dollar, which serves as a proxy for the yuan.

Gold staged its first decline in four sessions on Monday. Uncertainty over the new stimulus continues to loom, which sours the risk-on mood are benefiting the greenback, and put the precious metal on the back foot.

US Election

Polls

As Bloomberg polls statistics indicated, Joe Biden (Democrats) is leading the race by double digits over Donald Trump.

Daily Wrap

Joe Biden’s has an overwhelming 86.1% chance of winning the Electoral College, according to the latest run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model. The model predicted a win of 352 vs 186 electoral votes favoring Biden.

Absentee Ballots Statistics

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (H4)

Euro dollar surged to 1.1831 on last Friday, and it retraced to test 1.18 hurdle. Buyers successfully defend 1.18 as the share currency look to capitalize a 1% gain from last week, we witnessed a strong rejection to the downside on the four-hour chart. The Euro has to overcome 61.8% Fibonacci near 1.1859 before the bulls could retake solid control the US greenback.

Resistance: 1.1859, 1.1917, 1.2011

Support: 1.1765, 1.1706, 1.1612

AUDUSD (Daily)

Aussie raised to challenge its descending trendline, and price was rejected by 0.724 hurdle. However, the antipodean currency has managed to create higher highs on the daily chart, which suggest a bullish reversal in on the way. Price failed to breach below 50% Fibonacci near 0.721 support level, the retracement could be seen as a healthy confirmation of previous resistance turned into current support. That being said, we still need to observe whether it could break above the descending trendline before deciding the bulls could stage a consistent run to the upside.

Resistance: 0.7258, 0.7317, 0.7414

Support: 0.7161, 0.7102, 0.7

XAUUSD (Daily)

Gold failed to advance beyond 23.6% Fibonacci near 1930 resistance. However, the rejection was mild, we expect the yellow metal to raise ahead of US election. Hedge funds continue hold a bullish view on the value-preserving metal, CFTC data indicates Non-commercial position increased by 6,214 contracts. It is likely that market is waiting for price to break above the descending trendline before entering heavy load of longs.

Resistance: 1971, 2017, 2075

Support: 1877, 1838, 1765

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20201012
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U.S. stocks rallied, with the S&P 500 posting its biggest weekly increase since July

Market Focus U.S. stocks rallied, with the S&P 500 posting its biggest weekly increase since July, as traders bet lawmakers are moving closer to providing more fiscal stimulus. Treasury yields were mostly flat, and the dollar slipped. The benchmark equity gauge rose for a third day with President Donald Trump saying he now wants an even bigger package than what …

Market Focus

U.S. stocks rallied, with the S&P 500 posting its biggest weekly increase since July, as traders bet lawmakers are moving closer to providing more fiscal stimulus. Treasury yields were mostly flat, and the dollar slipped.

The benchmark equity gauge rose for a third day with President Donald Trump saying he now wants an even bigger package than what Democrats offered. For the week, the index finished up 3.8%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.5% on Friday.

Investors ended a volatile week with a risk-on attitude. With Trump recuperating from Covid-19 in the final stretch of the election campaign, they’re increasingly betting a Joe Biden victory is likely. Speculation is moving now to whether Democrats will sweep Congress too and then enact massive stimulus.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs

The dollar weakened against all major currencies and stocks rose on increased hopes of U.S. stimulus deal, with President Donald Trump now saying he supports a package larger than what both Rep and Demo are offering.

According to derivative market, measures of implied foreign-exchange volatility have eased back from recent peak as opinion polls indicate that candidate Joe Biden is increasingly likely to unseat present President Donald Trump.

Among developed FX markets, the rising chance of a blue wave is most noticeable in commodity-linked currencies, with the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie dollar among those notching the biggest volatility drops over the past five days.

Loonie fell as much as 0.5% to 1.1328 as of writing, which extend after solid jobs report. Meanwhile, crude oil fell 2% around in Friday U.S. session which support risk appetite and commodities while dollar drop.

Sterling edged up .8% to 1.1304 as Brexit trade negotiation continues between British and European Union.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (H4)

Euro dollar soared up as much as .6%to solid around 1.1825 and gained traction after data showed Italy August Industrial production rose 7.7% m/m, versus expectations for a 1.4% advance. For RSI perspective, it rallied above overbought area as 70.85, suggesting a caution bullish trend. Meanwhile, long and short-term went up at the same time.

We expect euro dollar would keep slightly rallying for short range as solid resistance at 1.1857 around while ECB official saw strong euro challenging financial conditions.

Resistance: 1.1857, 1.19

Support: 1.18, 1.1755

USDJPY (H4)

Japan yen fall .4% to 105.6 and dips below the 4 hours chart’s 60-SMAVG while one-month volatility down 4% to 7.3 since Oct.7. Despite the intraday decline, yen continues to cling to modest weekly gains. As the save haven consideration, yen advance appreciation in daily performance against shares market while gold and swiss franc appreciate as well.

For RSI indicator aspect, figure slipped below 40 as of writing, suggesting a renewed bearish pressure. Despite a lack of fresh development surrounding the stimulus negotiations in the U.S., investors seem to be staying caution hopeful that it will be able to pass and new offer hope from President Donald Trump.

We expect the yen would continuously be unstable with descending trend while election news would fluctuate the market as close to election day.

Resistance: 106.27, 106.06, 105.76

Support: 105.5, 105.27

XAUUSD (H4)

The gold extended gained in nearly 2 consecutive days to 1930 as of writing, in the hope the congress approves a multi-trillion fiscal stimulus deal. President Donald Trump is reportedly eager to strike an accord ahead of the elections, while his fellow Rep seem reluctant to go with him, especially given his standing in the polls.

According to 4 hours chart, it breaks through a critical resistance at 1919.8 as nearly 1-month-long strong resistance. For RSI indicator perspective, figure edged up to 68 around that pretty close to overbought area, suggesting a strong bullish guidance ahead. Meantime, it has the bullish strongest signal that long- and short-term moving average already golden cross with both ascendant trends. We expect that will be creep up with far away especially shares markets keep rallied.

Resistance: 1900, 1919.81, 1936.75

Support: 1874.37, 1847.96

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2020109
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U.S. jobless claims missed estimates with 840K (Forecast: 820K)

Market Focus U.S. stocks rose to almost five-week highs as traders speculated that lawmakers will eventually provide more stimulus and corporate deal activity increased. Treasury bon yields dropped and the dollar weakened. The S&P500 finished up 0.8% after conflicting comments from President Trump and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi whipsawed equity markets earlier in the day. Energy, utilities, and financials were …

Market Focus

U.S. stocks rose to almost five-week highs as traders speculated that lawmakers will eventually provide more stimulus and corporate deal activity increased. Treasury bon yields dropped and the dollar weakened.

The S&P500 finished up 0.8% after conflicting comments from President Trump and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi whipsawed equity markets earlier in the day. Energy, utilities, and financials were the biggest gainers in the benchmark index, with crude oil rallying as Hurricane Delta approached the already battered Louisiana coast.

Bulls are now back in control of a market that is increasingly betting that a Joe Biden presidential victory and gains by Democrats in Congress will be good for equities.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs

EURUSD is struggling with 1.1750, off the highs. House Speaker Pelosi cast doubts that a fiscal stimulus deal can be reached with Republicans. At the same time, U.S. jobless claims missed estimates with 840K (Forecast: 820K).

GBPUSD is trading above 1.229, holding onto gains. BOE Governor Bailey seemed to downplay the adverse effect of the second coronavirus wave. Brexit talks have yet to yield a breakthrough.

USDJPY remained confined in a range near the 106 mark. A subdued USD demand kept a lid on the early uptick to three-week tops. The risk-on sentiment undermined the safe-haven yen and helped limit losses.

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD (H4)

AUDUSD rose to test daily highs at 0.7171 multiple times today, but it failed to break higher, pulled back, and is currently trading around 0.7165. The pullback took place when the U.S. dollar gained strength as the equity prices in Wall Street lost momentum. Nevertheless, the move was short-lived and the DXY went back to neutral territory after hitting da daily high at 93.82. It seems like the Aussie is about to post the second daily gain in a row, but still has not fully recovered from the Tuesday’s slide initiated by U.S. President Trump’s announcement of cancelling the stimulus talk.

By observing the SMAVG movement, we expect the pair might be entering a short-term bearish trend because the SMAVG 15 is currently staging a cross below SMAVG 60.

Resistance: 0.7171, 0.7209

Support: 0.7144, 0.7125, 0.7099

USDCAD (H4)

The Loonie pair extended its slide down in the late American session and reached its lowest level since September 21st at 1.3194. The main driver for the Loonie pair is driven by the surging WTI price because the DXY remains neutral and did not show any decisive move in either direction. WTI is trading above $41 after the output in the U.S. declined by more than 1.5 million barrels per day due to Delta Hurricane. Nonetheless, RSI has went down below the 30-threshold, suggesting an oversold has taken place and a upward correction might be likely.

Resistance: 1.3257, 1.3275, 1.3353

Support: 1.3194, 1.3140

XAUUSD (H4)

The gold climbed after the beginning of the American session to $1900, reaching the highest level in two days but the pair returned to fluctuating between the 1900 and 1880 interval. Given that 1900 is a psychological resistance level, the failure to break above the region suggests the bears are committed to retain their downside price action. Now, given that the short-term SMAVG is crossing below the long-term SMAVG, we expect the safe-haven metal might enter another round of bearish run. Nonetheless, if XAUUSD can successfully break above the 1900 resistance, then it will open risk to an upside extension towards the 1919 area.

Resistance: 1900, 1919.81, 1936.75

Support: 1874.37, 1847.96

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