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20201027
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The Dow Jones and S&P500 index suffered its biggest drop since early September

Market Focus The Dow Jones and S&P500 index suffered its biggest drop since early September as the United States recorded the highest coronavirus infection cases during the weekend. Combined with the lack of progress on stimulus talk, investors are running away from risky equity market, funds are directed to safe assets such as US treasury, 10-year yield down 5.4% as …

Market Focus

The Dow Jones and S&P500 index suffered its biggest drop since early September as the United States recorded the highest coronavirus infection cases during the weekend. Combined with the lack of progress on stimulus talk, investors are running away from risky equity market, funds are directed to safe assets such as US treasury, 10-year yield down 5.4% as of writing. BlackRock Inc, the world’s largest asset manager, is downgrading its view on US government debt. Strategists suggested a blue-wave sweep would be the favorable outcome, and Biden’s plan of fiscal expansion will bring higher inflation to US, thus further erodes yield from US bonds.

House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will hold a call on Monday to determine whether progress can be made on the fiscal stimulus package, according to a person familiar with the plan. Chance of a stimulus is closing in as Pelosi and Mnuchin traded blame for the latest stall in negotiation. However, it remains to be one of the key factors that moves the financial market.

US infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci backs President Trump on vaccine timetable, saying “we will know whether a vaccine is safe and effective by the end of November, early December.” Despite the positivity from Fauci, the market was focused on issue in the near term.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs

Safe haven greenback has benefited from the risk-averse bias on Monday, the US dollar index climbed 0.31% near closing hours. The Canadian Lonnie was the biggest loser due to plunging oil price, both Brent and West Texas Crude dropped around 3.3%. Euro also suffered from US dollar strength, surrendered all of its gain from last Friday, settled at one week’s low of 1.08.

Gold was surprising unfazed on Monday, divergence in SPDR Gold ETF and iShares Gold ETF, the world’s two largest Gold ETF, continues to widen. Moreover, Commitment of Trader data is printed a similar picture, commercial institutions reduce holdings of Gold while non-commercial (large hedge funds) players are bulking up their Gold positions.

US Election

Countdown

Presidential Election: 7 Days

Electoral College: 49 Days

Polls

Daily Wrap

Joe Biden’s chances of winning the Electoral College has spiked to 87.6%, according to the latest run of poll by FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast model. He is predicted to win 334 of 538 electoral votes.

Trump’s administration will not release a second-term tax plan prior to US election, the White House economist Larry Kudlow said. Trump has repeatedly said he wants to cut taxes further and provide incentives for US companies to bring jobs back to ‘home’, yet no details were given. Senate republicans has refused to consider a payroll tax cut as a stimulus measure to fight the current economic downturn.

With Pennsylvania and Wisconsin prohibiting opening mail-in ballots, and in fact many Democrats planning to vote by mail, we expect Republican to receive a favorable margin on Election day for these two states.

The Senate is ready to vote Monday night to elevate Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court a week before US election day. Republicans possess enough votes to confirm the spot for Barrett without the support of any Democrats.

Absentee Voting

Early voting statistics from ‘US Elections Project’ has indicated 65% voters from Florida and North Carolina already casted their ballots one week prior to US Election day. Other four swing states are also catching up on the race, Pennsylvania is the only one lagging.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Previous descending trendline has turned to a support line for Euro-dollar on the four-hour chart, price bounced the 1.179 pivot point. But the bullish move was rejected by 1.186, and it is currently retracing back to 50% Fibonacci near 1.1813. Another contest of the descending support line will likely take place during Tuesday session, if it is proved to be resilient, then price could rebound to 1.1917 level. Conversely, failure to constrain the bear could lead price to 1.17. MACD on the four-hour chart suggest selling bias will carry on.

Resistance: 1.186. 1.1917. 1.2

Support: 1.1766. 1.17. 1.1615

USDCFH (4-Hour Chart)

USDCHF has formed a double-bottom on the four-hour chart, and it is one last step away from finishing the pattern, namely, it is constructing the right wing of the ‘W’ shape. Price has to settle above 0.908 to be considered solid bullish reversal. If that happens, then bulls would aim to climb back to 0.918, then retrace back toward 0.913 to establish a base for the bullish reversal. MACD on the four-hour chart is lending support to bidders.

Resistance: 0.9129, 0.9182

Support: 0.9035, 0.9

NZDUSD (Daily Chart)

The Kiwi is well placed inside its medium-term uptrend tunnel despite dropping 0.2% at the beginning of the week. It is currently testing the previous resistance, now turned support, of 0.668. If confirmed, then bulls will be running north towards 0.68 hurdle last seen back in September. On the downside, the ascending dynamic trendline should provide support to contain any further declines.

Resistance: 0.68, 0.6925

Support: 0.668, 0.6485, 0.629

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20201026
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The UK retail sales beat estimates while PMIs were mixed

Market Focus Most U.S. stocks rose after the Trump administration resuscitated hopes for a spending package. Treasuries remained higher. The S&P500 edged higher to pare a weekly decline. It erased losses after White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said he expects a deal in a day or so. Tech shares underperformed after Intel Inc. plunged more than 10%, dragging …

Market Focus

Most U.S. stocks rose after the Trump administration resuscitated hopes for a spending package. Treasuries remained higher. The S&P500 edged higher to pare a weekly decline. It erased losses after White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said he expects a deal in a day or so. Tech shares underperformed after Intel Inc. plunged more than 10%, dragging chipmakers lower. American Express Co. also faltered following earnings. Gilead Sciences Inc. rose after its antiviral therapy become the first drug formally cleared to treat Covid-19. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 0.83%. Oil slipped below $40 a barrel in New York.

Investors remain focused on Washington, where lawmakers are haggling over a financial spending bill to prop up the economy before the Nov. 3, though optimism that a deal will come at some point this year has helped drive Treasury rates higher in recent days. At the same time, the final presidential debate appeared to do little to alter the trajectory of a race that Democrat Joe Biden leads according to polls.

Growing coronavirus infections around the world continued to weigh on markets. U.S. cases exceeded 70,000 for the first day since late July. In Europe, governments have started deploying curfews and other restrictions more widely.

According to Eleanor Creagh, a market strategist at SAXO Capital Markets, “The focus is shifting toward de-risking, there’s a range of outcomes from the elections that could have a huge capacity to change market sentiment and dynamics very quickly.”

Market Wrap

Main Pairs

The AUDUSD pair quickly retreated over 50 pips during the early North American session and refreshed daily lows, around the 0.7100 mark in the last hour.

The USDCAD pair failed to capitalize on its early uptick and retreated around 50 pips from daily swing highs, albeit managed to find some support ahead of the 1.3100 mark.

The DXY remains on the defensive around the 92.70 region at the end of the week. On the other hand, front-month WTI futures’ reversal from day tops near $41 has extended to one-week lows at $39.55 on Friday after Baker Hughes reported that U.S. oil and gas rigs increased to their highest level since May last week.

XAUUSD edged higher through the early North American session and refreshed daily tops, around the $1912 region in the last hour, recovering a part of the overnight slide to over one-week lows.

US Election

Countdown

Presidential Election: 10 Days

Electoral College: 52 Days

Polls

Daily Wrap

The final presidential debate of the 2020 campaign attracted 55 million viewers on major broadcast and cable networks, a steep decline from Donald Trump and Joe Biden’s first matchup. Nonetheless, Thursday’s debate was a more subdued affair than the first one, where the candidates often interrupted each other.

During the debate, President Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden traded charges of secretly taking money from foreign interests, after the former vice president addressed head-on Trump’s efforts to portray him as corrupt.

The Trump campaign is dealt another blow on voting in Pennsylvania. Democrats are dominating mail-in voting in the Keystone State. And young voters’ turnout is surging in early ballots in battleground states.

Absentee Voting

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD (4-Hour Chart)

Cable has retreated from the highs around 1.3160 after UK minister Truss reiterated that the UK could leave without a deal. Ireland’s Coveney expressed more optimism. And the UK retail sales beat estimates while PMIs were mixed. Additionally, with the equity prices of Wall Street dipped slightly at the time of writing, the greenback have regained momentum to further weigh down on the Cable. Additionally, ahead of the weekend, investors’ expectations about a new stimulus plan seem to wear off. From a technical perspective, the bearish momentum of the pair may persist throughout Friday. But, if we observe how the short-term SMAVG continues to sit above the long-term SMAVG, it is reasonable to expect a bullish price action for the Cable in both the short and mid-run.

Resistance: 1.3160, 1.3090, 1.3061

Support: 1.3020, 1.2986

EURUSD (4-Hour Chart)

EURUSD is trading above 1.1840 after robust German Manufacturing PMI. Despite the sluggish eurozone data and the increasing Covid-19 cases across the European continent, the Euros continue to stay positive against the greenback. Although the greenback slightly retrieve its strength back on Friday, a bullish trend in the EURUSD price action appears to be more likely because the RSI continues to move towards the 70 Oversold threshold, suggesting that the buyers are continuing to bid on EUR. At the time of writing, the EURUSD is retesting the 1.1862 resistance level, if EURUSD breaks above the 1.1862 zone, the next resistance would be seen around 1.1875.

Resistance: 1.1862, 1.1875

Support: 1.1842, 1.1820, 1.1791

USDJPY (4-Hour Chart)

After a short-lived surge to the 104.88 region, USDJPY pulled back and is traded around 104.71 at the time of writing, which is a price resting in the week-long consolidating region between 104.6 and 104.81. The current bearish outlook of the USDJPY is reinforced by the bearish bias oscillators and buyers’ failure to maintain a positive traction during the temporary bullish run. Nevertheless, before positioning any additional sell on the USDJPY, it would be wise to first wait for a bearish confirmation. After all, most of the ongoing price actions of USDJPY today are driven by investors’ expectations that are not backed with significant economic data or government released information.

From a technical perspective, USDJPY is expected to slide back down to the monthly lows of 104.00 if the pair successfully broke below the 104.50 support. On the flip side, a stiff resistance around the psychological resistance zone of 105 may be the main barrier that prohibits bidders to further extend their gains.

Resistance: 104.81, 104.92, 105.14

Support: 104.60, 104.5, 104.34

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20201023
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Barack Obama will help Joe Biden to campaign in swing states in the next two weeks

Market Focus US equity market struggled to find a direction as lawmakers try their best to seal a deal before US Election. The three big equity indices plunged nearly 0.8% shortly after market open, then managed to overturn their loss at the end. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are one step closer to a deal on …

Market Focus

US equity market struggled to find a direction as lawmakers try their best to seal a deal before US Election. The three big equity indices plunged nearly 0.8% shortly after market open, then managed to overturn their loss at the end.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are one step closer to a deal on the stimulus package. She said they still haven’t settled three of the main sticking points, Democrats’ demands for aid to state and local government, school funding and Republican insistence on a liability shield for employers. The bipartisan talk will resume on Thursday, where two party representatives will hold a conference call as they rush to forge a compromise.

Pandemic is worsening as COVID-19 cases surged around the world, German infections have jumped to a record and Spain’s health minister said the spread of coronavirus is out of control in certain parts of the country. US hospitalizations for COVID-19 have reached a two-months high.

Just a reminder, the final presidential debate will take place on 12pm (AEDT). Both candidates will be questioned on topics such as fighting pandemic, racial and ethnic politics, national security, leadership, and climate change.

Market Wrap

Main Pairs

Cable was giving up part of its gain from yesterday, down 0.55% intraday. Albeit the Pound was able to move higher yesterday following the resumption of talks between UK and the bloc, speculators are still waiting for more concrete progress from either UK or European Union on the ongoing Brexit negotiation.

The Dollar Index snapped a four-day losing streak after President Donald Trump expressed skepticism over the ability to get a stimulus deal done prior to US Election. However, Aussie and Kiwi were resilient against strong US dollars performance on Thursday, the uptick lacked any obvious fundamental catalyst.

US Election

Countdown

Presidential Election: 11 Days

Electoral College: 53 Days

Polls

Daily Wrap

Barack Obama will help Joe Biden to campaign in swing states in the next two weeks. The former president made his remark to incumbent Donald Trump, saying “I never never thought Donald Trump would embrace my vision or continue my polices, but I did hope for the sake of the country, that he might show some interest in taking the job seriously.” Obama, who is still receiving a wide acceptance among black Americans, will be key to winning polls from young Black men.

Election officials in Pennsylvania are now preparing for the worst-case scenario that they will be forced to wait until Election Day to begin processing mail-in ballots. Pennsylvania Republicans had sought to block the counting of late-arriving ballots, where Democrats pushed for the extension. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are the only two swing states where officials can begin processing and counting the millions of absentee ballots only on Election Day, likely delaying complete results for several days.

Trump appears to be less popular in Kansas than he was four years ago. He won the state by 20 percentage points in 2016, but a New York Times poll has indicated he is up only 7 points ahead of Biden in a state no Democrat has carried since 1964.

Absentee Voting

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4-Hour & Monthly Chart)

Euro–dollar staged a healthy retreat on Thursday after raising for 1.37% in the past four trading days. The pair is currently trying to find acceptance above 23.6% Fibonacci near 1.1818, the bulls will resume its uptrend if price fails to penetrate this support. Conversely, 1.177-1.178 support zone will likely halt any further declines if 1.1818 fails to constraint the bears.

Zooming out to the monthly chart, the Euro is still struggling to shake off its long term bearish bias. If it can stand above the descending trendline, then the bulls could eye for 1.25, a price level not seen since February 2018.

Resistance: 1.1882

Support: 1.1818, 1.177-1.178, 1.1747

AUDNZD (Daily Chart)

AUDNZD has recorded 9 declines in the last 10 trading days, and the only closed-high candle was a doji. That being said, the selling strength on this pair is apparently very strong and it is travelling south towards 1.057. We expect price to rebound after hitting 1.057, and that doji marked by sellers could be contest before the antipodean pair plunges further downward. RSI on the daily chart is approaching the oversold mark, currently printing 32.43.

Resistance: 1.0715, 1.0826, 1.1

Support: 1.057, 1.04

XAUUSD (Daily Chart)

Gold gave back all of its gain from yesterday, down 1.05% near closing hours. The precious metal failed to provide a clear direction to market speculators, and price is still trapped inside the downward wedge. However, price did not penetrate the support line of the wedge after being rejected by $1930, which could be a sign that favors bidder. Next attempt to break above $1930 could be critical as the last attempt already took out some defensive sells.

Resistance: 1930, 2075

Support: 1838, 1765, 1692

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20201022
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The U.S. 10-year yield broke above 0.8% to the highest point since June

Market Focus U.S. stocks ended a volatile session slightly lower as the White House and Democrats neared an aid deal but signaled it’s unlikely to become law before the election. Treasury yields climbed and the dollar retreated extensively. The S&P500 Index closed lower after an up-and-down session that saw the index whipsawed by takes on the progress toward a deal. …

Market Focus

U.S. stocks ended a volatile session slightly lower as the White House and Democrats neared an aid deal but signaled it’s unlikely to become law before the election. Treasury yields climbed and the dollar retreated extensively.

The S&P500 Index closed lower after an up-and-down session that saw the index whipsawed by takes on the progress toward a deal. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi continued talks with White House representatives even as the odds remained long for a deal that could pass in the Senate. Small caps lagged behind.

Energy producers were among the worst performers as oil fell toward $40 a barrel in New York. Social media firms fared better after Snap Inc. reported strong earnings, with Twitter Inc. and Facebook Inc. both up more than 5% at one point. The U.S. 10-year yield broke above 0.8% to the highest point since June.

According to George Pearkes, a global macro strategist at Bespoke Investment Group, “Markets are pretty aggressively priced and we’re getting a lot of information about earnings season. This is just stocks doing what stocks do, which is sometimes go up and sometimes go down, and whether it’s because of stimulus or something else is kind of irrelevant.”

John Hardy, chief foreign-exchange strategist at Saxo Bank, on the other hand, claimed that “The rise in yields suggests that the market thinks a stimulus deal will be forthcoming and that the Democrats are set to take both the presidency and the Senate at the Nov. 3 election.”

Market Wrap

Main Pairs

GBPUSD has hit the highest point since early September, nearing the 1.31 zone. Hopes for progress on Brexit and U.S. stimulus boost the pair, while concerns about a “circuit breaking” UK lockdown weigh on sterling.

The Aussie is trading above the 0.7100 level, benefiting from persistent dollar’s weakness. Hopes for a U.S. stimulus package pressured the greenback but failed to boost equities.

The Loonie pair printed a fresh daily high at 1.3139 despite the decline of the U.S. dollar across the board. The rebound took place amid a decline in crude oil prices and after Canadian economic data. Economic data from Canada showed a lower than expected increase in retail sales in August.

US Election

Countdown

Presidential Election: 12 Days

Electoral College: 54 Days

Polls

Daily Wrap

Fracking, the oil, gas extraction technique has become the hot button issue of the 2020 election, with President Donald Trump claiming his political rival will cripple the economy in politically important states such as Pennsylvania by putting an end to the well extraction technique, despite Joe Biden’s assertions to the contrary.

There’s good reason it’s getting so much attention: Hydraulic fracturing is used to coax oil and gas out of roughly 95% of U.S. wells, according to government data.

While Biden has called for prohibiting new oil and gas projects on federal land, the candidate has made it clear he does not support a widespread ban on fracking. Nonetheless, even if Biden wanted to ban fracking, he couldn’t unilaterally ban fracking on private lands. Under a 2005 law, the Environmental Protection Agency has almost no regulatory power over fracking. Changing that would require an act of Congress.

Absentee Voting

Technical Analysis

EURUSD (4H Chart)

EURUSD advances towards 1.1900 extensively today on upbeat market mood, the highest since in a month. Optimism for a possible U.S. stimulus is boosting the global markets’ sentiment and weighing down on the greenback. At the time of writing, the EURUSD has pulled back from 1.1876 towards 1.1855 zone. On top of that, with the RSI of the pair currently sits above the 70-overbought level, a short-term downward correction is quite likely. However, since the upbeat market sentiment has overwhelmed the greenback drastically, we expect the pair to continue remain its bullish momentum in the short-term.

Resistance: 1.1876, 1.1896

Support: 1.1844, 1.1820, 1.1790

USDJPY (4H Chart)

The USDJPY pair woke up from its lethargy, plummeting on dollar’s sell-off. Sellers ignored a modest Wall Street’s advance and higher U.S. Treasury yields. At one point, the USDJPY even dropped to 104.34, the lowest point since Sep 21, 2020. But given that the RSI for USDJPY continues to hover below 30-oversold threshold, an upward correction is highly possible. At the time of writing, USDJPY is bouncing slightly back from the 104.50 support level, but if the bearish momentum resumes, the next support level would be 104.34 and 104.11. Like most of the extensive main pair fluctuations today, the bearish trend of USDJPY is largely driven by a likely U.S. stimulus package and not market’s demand for the yen.

Resistance: 104.92, 105.14, 105.31

Support: 104.50, 104.34, 104.11

XAUUSD (4H Chart)

Gold built on the previous day’s modest gain from a one-week consolidation and climbed above the $1920 zone. Gold benefited well from the broad dollar’s weakness today. From a technical perspective, a SMAVG golden cross has been staged and the RSI remains under the overbought zone, the two indicators collectively make us believe that the bullish trend of the gold is likely to extend further. If the gold price can break above the $1931 level, the next resistance would be at 1939.98.

Resistance: 1931.31, 1939.98

Support: 1914.35, 1897.35, 1882

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