Central Banks, Housing, and Business Sentiment Steer Market Mood

The Week Ahead: Week of July 21, 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
As the second half of 2025 unfolds, the macro spotlight shifts to central bank signaling and real-economy momentum. The European Central Bank headlines the week with its July rate decision and press conference, where markets expect a pause following June’s 25bps cut. With Eurozone inflation trending back toward target, attention will turn to the tone of ECB President Lagarde’s remarks for any dovish or hawkish tilts. On the U.S. side, Fed officials remain in a data-dependent holding pattern as investors await more clarity on labor market trends and household demand.

Tuesday brings comments from Fed Chair Powell — any deviation from his recent “higher-for-longer” message could stir rate cut speculation. On Wednesday, existing home sales data offers a look at housing demand amid volatile mortgage rates, while Thursday’s deluge includes the ECB decision, U.S. jobless claims, S&P PMIs, and new home sales. Durable goods orders close out the week on Friday, offering a look at business investment appetite.

Key Events to Watch:

Tuesday, July 22 – 16:30

Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Powell’s recent messaging has leaned cautious, emphasizing the need for more inflation progress before easing. Markets will parse his remarks for any shift in tone following muted CPI and PPI prints the prior week. A more dovish tilt could stoke expectations for a September cut, while hawkish reiteration may cap risk appetite.

Wednesday, July 23 – 17:00

Existing Home Sales (Jun)

Previous: 4.03M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

U.S. housing has shown resilience despite affordability headwinds, but May’s figure marked a stall. With mortgage rates fluctuating and supply still tight, June data will test whether demand is recovering or stagnating. A print above 4.2M would support a soft-landing narrative, while another miss could flag cracks in the consumer housing engine.

ECB Deposit Facility Rate (Jul)

Previous: 2.00% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The ECB is widely expected to leave its deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.00% in July after delivering a rate cut in June. While inflation across the Eurozone has continued to cool, growth indicators remain patchy, with manufacturing activity still in contraction territory. Markets will be watching for dovish signals that suggest policymakers are open to further easing in September. A surprise cut could send EUR/USD sharply lower, especially if paired with cautious forward guidance.

Thursday, July 24 – 15:15

ECB Interest Rate Decision (Main Refi Rate, Jul)

Previous: 2.15% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The main refinancing rate is also expected to stay at 2.15%, but the tone of the accompanying statement will be key. ECB President Christine Lagarde may address concerns over weak demand, elevated borrowing costs, and faltering business investment. With no forecast available, traders will take their cue from the press conference and market pricing on future cuts.

Thursday, July 24 – 15:30

Initial Jobless Claims

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Claims have inched higher in recent weeks, suggesting cooling in the labor market. If filings breach the 240K mark, dovish bets may intensify. However, continued stability would reinforce the Fed’s wait-and-see stance and delay easing timelines.

Thursday, July 24 – 15:45

ECB Press Conference

Markets will key in on Lagarde’s tone more than the policy outcome. If she hints at a front-loaded cutting path or cites deteriorating demand, euro bears may gain traction. Conversely, a measured tone could reaffirm a slow and cautious path, especially if inflation risks resurface.

Thursday, July 24 – 16:45

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul, prelim)

Previous: 52.9 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Manufacturing has clung to expansion territory, but new orders and pricing power have been weakening. Another solid reading would suggest industrial activity is weathering high rates, while a dip back toward 50 could reignite hard-landing fears.

Thursday, July 24 – 16:45

S&P Global Services PMI (Jul, prelim)

Previous: 52.9 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Services activity has been the bedrock of recent economic strength, but consumers are growing more price-sensitive. A solid print would confirm ongoing resilience, while any miss — especially below 51 — may dent confidence in consumer-led growth.

Thursday, July 24 – 17:00

New Home Sales (Jun)

Previous: 623K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Builders have supported the housing market amid resale shortages, but buyer fatigue is setting in. A print above 650K would suggest solid pipeline demand. A weaker result could highlight affordability barriers and weigh on construction-linked equities.

Friday, July 25 – 15:30

Durable Goods Orders (MoM, Jun)

Previous: +16.4% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

May’s blowout number was skewed by large aircraft orders. June will likely normalize, and core capital goods (non-defense ex-aircraft) will be closely watched. Strong business investment would support soft-landing hopes; weakness would point to growing caution among firms.